The National Health Service is turning to artificial intelligence in a bid to tackle long waiting times in emergency departments across England this winter. A new forecasting tool, which uses AI to predict when A&E units will be busiest, is now available to all NHS trusts.
How the AI Forecasting Tool Works
The system is trained on vast amounts of historic data, including seasonal weather patterns, to determine how many people are likely to seek emergency care. This allows hospital managers to plan shifts and bed space more effectively. Around 50 NHS organisations are already using the technology, with officials reporting positive early results.
Ian Murray, the Minister for Digital Government and Data, explained the tool's value. "The front door of the NHS is the A&E department. You've no idea how many people will come through the door," he said. While it's known that Saturday nights are typically busier than Tuesday nights, and winter is generally busier than summer, this AI provides much more precise predictions.
"It helps us to predict how busy their A&E departments are going to be," Murray stated. "If you put that into context and see seasonal trends, along with how busy days are going to be, you can then put your resources in the right place."
Freeing Up Staff and Resources
The minister outlined the practical benefits, noting that better forecasting means hospitals can schedule more consultants and nursing staff for anticipated peak times. It also allows for planning further down the patient pathway, such as freeing up beds by discharging patients more efficiently when high demand is forecast.
Murray emphasised that the technology is about modernising the NHS and letting clinicians focus on their core duties. He said it allows healthcare staff "to do the things that they're trained to do, rather than having to be bound down by bureaucratic processes."
Impact on Corridor Care and Waiting Times
The rollout comes as the NHS continues to grapple with significant pressures. The latest NHS England figures show that in November, 50,648 people waited more than 12 hours in A&E from a decision to admit them to actually being admitted—a situation often referred to as 'corridor care'. This was, however, an improvement from 54,314 in October.
Similarly, the number of patients waiting at least four hours from the decision to admit to admission fell to 133,799 in November from 142,734 the previous month. The proportion of patients seen within four hours in A&E rose slightly to 74.2%.
Technology Secretary Liz Kendall commented: "AI is already improving healthcare by speeding up diagnosis and unlocking new treatments. Now we are going a step further. By helping to predict demand, this AI forecasting tool is getting patients the care they need faster while supporting our incredible NHS staff."
Professor Julian Redhead, National Medical Director for Urgent and Emergency Care at NHS England, added: "Early and efficient planning is key to managing busy periods like winter, and new tech like the AI tool has the potential to make a real difference to the way we manage care for patients."
The tool forms part of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's AI Exemplars programme, following his statement in January that AI will 'drive incredible change in our country'.
