The US jobs market has not experienced serious disruption from breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, according to a study by Yale University's Budget Lab. The analysis found no 'discernible disruption' since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, with changes in the occupational mix described as 'sluggish' compared to the upheaval seen in the 1940s and 1950s.
Researchers noted that historical trends suggest technological changes take decades to fully impact the workforce. 'Computers didn't become commonplace in offices until nearly a decade after their release to the public, and it took even longer for them to transform office workflows,' the study said. It argued that even if AI eventually has dramatic effects, widespread changes are unlikely within 33 months.
The study, conducted with the Brookings Institution, examined shifts in the occupational mix—a measure of job types across the economy. It found that changes were already underway in 2021 and did not accelerate after ChatGPT's introduction. Sectors most likely to be affected, such as newspapers, film-making, and accountancy, were already showing changes before the chatbot's release.
However, the report flagged recent data showing a divergence between the jobs mix for recent graduates and older graduates aged 25-34. This could indicate AI impacting early career workers, but it may also reflect a slowing jobs market. The authors concluded that 'while anxiety over the effects of AI on today's labour market is widespread, our data suggests it remains largely speculative.'
