Texas Primaries Launch 2026 Midterm Cycle with High-Stakes Senate and Congressional Contests
The first votes of the 2026 midterm election cycle are being cast in Texas on Tuesday, featuring a pair of high-stakes US Senate primaries that will rigorously test both political parties' appetite for change in the Trump era. Voters across the state will decide nominees for a critical Senate seat, as well as for several key congressional races reshaped by a mid-decade gerrymander sought by Donald Trump to preserve the Republican Party's fragile House majority.
Republican Senate Primary: MAGA Movement Versus Old-Guard Conservatism
In the Senate race, Republicans are measuring the potency of Trump's Make America Great Again movement against traditional conservatism. The vast majority of political ad spending, which has surpassed $122 million according to AdImpact data, making this the most expensive Senate primary on record, is focused on helping four-term incumbent John Cornyn fend off a challenge from Ken Paxton, the state's scandal-plagued attorney general and a conservative culture warrior.
Cornyn, 74, has emphasized his seniority and legislative record, defending it as closely aligned with the president. By contrast, Paxton, 64, has presented himself as MAGA's vanguard in Texas, willing to battle both Democrats and Republicans. A third candidate, two-term Republican congressman Wesley Hunt, is also seeking the nomination and is expected to pull enough votes to potentially force a runoff in late May if neither Cornyn nor Paxton captures over 50% to win outright.
Democratic Senate Primary: Progressive Powerhouses Clash Over Strategy
On the Democratic side, state representative James Talarico has crisscrossed deep-red counties that voted for Trump, preaching a 'politics of love' that roots progressive policy in Christian faith teachings. The 36-year-old former middle school teacher and current seminary student argues the central divide in American politics is 'not left versus right' but 'top versus bottom,' advocating for rebuilding trust in rural and suburban communities without abandoning core values.
He faces Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, a firebrand progressive whose unsparing attacks on Trump and Republicans have earned her a starring role in the resistance movement to his second term. Crockett, 44, entered the race in December, casting herself as a 'proven fighter' who 'drives the president crazy,' and contends that high turnout among young voters and voters of color—not ideological moderation—is key to winning statewide. This contest underlines a central debate that has animated the Democratic Party since Trump's 2016 victory: whether to win by doubling down on the base's fury or by courting independents and swing voters disenchanted with partisanship.
Broader Political Implications and Congressional Races
The fiercely competitive races have left Democrats unusually hopeful about their chances in Texas, a state that hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, while Republicans fret they could lose a seat once viewed as safely red. Early voting has soared, particularly on the Democratic side. Whether Democrats seriously contest the Senate race may depend on the outcome of the Republican contest, with Trump remaining a significant wildcard, pitting his base against Washington Republicans who warn that Paxton would be uniquely vulnerable due to years of legal and ethical scandals, including impeachment by his own party, though he was ultimately acquitted in the Senate.
Texas voters are also casting ballots for a slate of other federal, state, and local offices. As a result of redistricting, two sitting members of Congress are squaring off in the primary for congressional district 18, in a referendum on generational change. Representative Christian Menefee, 37, just weeks into his first term, faces off against Representative Al Green, 78, who has served for over two decades. On the Republican side, Representative Dan Crenshaw is potentially vulnerable to a right-wing challenge from state representative Steve Toth in the second congressional district, while Congressman Tony Gonzales faces calls for his resignation from fellow Republicans after allegations of an affair with a former staffer who later killed herself; he has resisted these calls.
Tuesday's election will hardly be the final word, but as polls open in the nation's second-largest state, Democrats will monitor political currents closely as they target Republican-held seats in other states, from Alaska to Maine, setting the stage for the 2026 midterms.
