China has set its GDP growth target for 2026 at 4.5-5%, the lowest since 1991, as the government shifts focus from export-led growth to 'high-quality growth' driven by hi-tech industries and structural reform. Premier Li Qiang announced the target at the opening of the National People’s Congress in Beijing, describing 2025 as a year of profound domestic and international developments.
The target reflects challenges including an ageing population, a struggling property sector, weak domestic demand, and a natural slowdown as the economy matures. Li also set an urban unemployment target of 5.5% and pledged to create over 12 million new urban jobs, in line with previous years.
China published its 15th five-year plan (2026-2030), focusing on boosting consumption and innovation. The plan includes a 17% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030, which analysts say falls short of China's earlier pledge to cut intensity by over 65% from 2005 levels by the end of the decade.
Despite trade tensions with the US, China ended 2025 with a record $1 trillion trade surplus. Experts note the lower growth target signals confidence, as China needs only 4.3% annual growth to achieve its goal of becoming a moderately developed country by 2035.
