The Green Party’s victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election has sent shockwaves through Labour, with the result showing progressive voters they have an alternative to Labour against Reform UK. The Greens secured a majority of 4,402 votes over Reform, winning their first northern seat and their best by-election result to date.
Labour MPs had long feared a Green win in the Manchester seat, which they warned could herald a split in the left similar to the right-wing fragmentation that gave Labour a landslide victory at the last general election. The result has reignited questions about Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership and his ability to hold together the party’s coalition of support.
Pollster Luke Tryl said the defeat was consequential not just for its scale but for the message it sends: “One of Labour’s ace cards had been the hope that, however frustrated or disillusioned progressive voters might be with the Starmer government, the threat of Reform would be enough to bring them back into the fold. But that argument risks collapsing.”
The Green Party’s vote share of 41% is four times larger than its previous best by-election result. Hannah Spencer, the new MP, said she would fight for those “left behind and isolated”. Both Labour and Green officials noted a shift among Muslim voters, many citing Starmer’s position on Gaza as a reason for switching allegiance.
Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University said the result highlighted how two pillars of Labour’s traditional support – white working-class voters and ethnic minorities – had deserted the party. Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader, said the party needed to “shout more loudly about our values”.
