Gravity and Rotation: Why Sea Level Rise Isn't Equal
A groundbreaking new study has uncovered the complex global consequences of Antarctic ice melt, revealing that sea level rise will be far from uniform across the world. A team of scientists, including Shaina Sadai and Ambarish Karmalkar, published their findings on 27 November 2025, combining sophisticated computer models of the Antarctic ice sheet, the solid Earth, and the global climate.
The research demonstrates that the immense mass of the Antarctic ice sheet creates a gravitational pull on the surrounding ocean. As the ice melts and this mass decreases, its gravitational attraction weakens. This causes sea levels to actually fall near the Antarctic coast but rise more significantly in distant ocean basins. Furthermore, the loss of such a vast ice mass alters the planet's rotation, redistributing water globally in a complex pattern.
Future Scenarios: From Moderate to Severe Impacts
The extent of the ice melt is directly tied to future global warming, which depends on greenhouse gas emissions. The study outlines two potential futures. In a moderate scenario where emissions are reduced but not sufficiently to meet the Paris Agreement goals, Antarctic melt alone would contribute about 4 inches (0.1 meters) to global average sea level by 2100. This figure jumps to more than 3.3 feet (1 meter) by 2200.
Under a high-emissions trajectory, the consequences are far more severe. The average sea-level rise from Antarctic melting would reach about 1 foot (0.3 meters) by 2100 and a staggering close to 10 feet (more than 3 meters) by 2200. The scientists note that while current projections make this high-emissions scenario unlikely, it underscores the critical importance of aggressive emission reductions.
Global Hotspots and Implications for Climate Justice
The research maps the regional disparities in sea-level rise. In the moderate scenario, the highest sea-level rise from Antarctic ice melt—up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) by 2200—would occur in the Indian, Pacific, and western Atlantic ocean basins. Under high emissions, a broader area, including the central Pacific and mid-Atlantic, could see rises of up to 4.3 meters (14 feet).
These regions are home to vulnerable island nations like Jamaica and the Marshall Islands, which have contributed minimally to climate change yet face existential threats from rising seas. This highlights a profound issue of climate justice. The study also identified two factors that can slow the rate of melting: the rebound of the Earth's bedrock as the ice weight lifts, and a temporary cooling effect from the meltwater itself, which traps heat in the deep ocean.
Ultimately, the study serves as a powerful reminder that the stability of Antarctica's ice, which holds enough water to raise sea levels by 190 feet (58 meters), is crucial for coastal and island communities worldwide. Protecting them hinges on the world's commitment to cutting greenhouse gas emissions faster than currently planned.
