A Guardian investigation has revealed the inner workings of Polymarket, a prediction market where gamblers are betting millions on conflicts such as the war in Ukraine and potential US-Iran hostilities. The platform, which allows users to wager on future events, has drawn criticism for its role in shaping news narratives and its potential to influence real-world outcomes.
Among the most active bets is one on whether Russia will capture the Ukrainian city of Kostyantynivka this year, with over $500,000 staked. The outcome hinges on maps produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US thinktank. Gamblers have expressed frustration with the ISW's maps, calling them 'disjointed' and 'incoherent', and have attempted to contact the institute to influence their reporting.
Polymarket has seen explosive growth, with daily trading volumes now exceeding $400m. Critics, including US senators, have called for regulation, arguing that the platform resembles a casino where anything from political events to the second coming of Jesus Christ can be monetised. Users have been accused of trying to manipulate news coverage to secure payouts, including threatening an Israeli journalist over a bet on Iranian strikes.
The ISW has condemned the exploitation of its products for gambling, stating it does not engage with such platforms. Polymarket, meanwhile, defends its role, claiming prediction markets can provide answers that traditional news cannot. However, experts warn that the platform's influence could extend to broader financial markets, affecting institutions and pension funds.
