Andy Burnham, a former Labour MP who held several cabinet positions before becoming the Mayor of Greater Manchester, finds himself at the centre of a political storm. Speculation is rife that he may attempt a return to parliament, potentially setting the stage for a leadership bid against Keir Starmer. This has prompted Starmer's allies to launch a concerted "Stop Andy Burnham" campaign, aiming to block his path back to Westminster.
Internal Labour Party Tensions Escalate
The campaign emerged following the resignation of Manchester MP Andrew Gwynne, who stepped down due to ill health, triggering a byelection in his constituency. Multiple members of Labour's ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) have predicted that Burnham would struggle to navigate the selection process, given the prevalence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are determined to avert any leadership challenge.
Labour officials and MPs have raised alarms about the financial implications and political risks associated with a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester, should Burnham vacate his current role. Estimates suggest that diverting party funds to cover a mayoral byelection could cost approximately £500,000, resources that would otherwise support other crucial elections across Britain.
Burnham's Ambitions and Public Standing
Burnham has not concealed his political aspirations. Last year, he caused consternation within Number 10 and among cabinet ministers by revealing that many MPs had encouraged him to run for Labour leader. Polls indicate that while Starmer faces unpopularity nationally, Burnham remains the only senior Labour figure with positive public approval ratings, enhancing his appeal as a potential challenger.
Despite this, Burnham's allies caution against overstating his plans, emphasising his dedication to his mayoral duties. "People want to paint him as scheming and plotting, but that's absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if he felt he had something to offer," one associate stated.
Obstacles and Strategic Maneuvers
Should Burnham decide to run, he faces significant hurdles. He would need approval from the NEC, where the odds are heavily stacked against him, and then win the byelection in Gorton and Denton, contending with challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents. Senior Labour figures confirm that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in motion, orchestrated by Starmer's chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, and his allies.
Prime Minister Starmer addressed the issue directly, urging his party to focus on pressing matters like the cost of living and global stability rather than leadership speculation. "Every minute we waste talking about anything other than the cost of living and stability in Europe and across the globe is a wasted minute," he told Channel 4 News.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
The unions, holding 13 out of about 40 seats on the NEC, represent a significant force. While major unions like Unite, Unison, and the GMB have remained publicly silent, sources indicate they would oppose any perceived interference from Number 10. Steve Wright, general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union, warned, "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked from seeking selection as Labour's byelection candidate in this seat."
There are also concerns about potential consequences if Burnham were to leave his mayoral post. Some fear that Reform UK could capitalise on any vacancy, achieving a symbolic victory in Greater Manchester. "What if Reform won the Greater Manchester mayoralty? It would be totemic for them: their biggest win yet. We would be mad to let that happen," one source remarked.
Background and Broader Implications
Andrew Gwynne's resignation, prompted by deteriorating mental health, has a majority of 13,413 in his seat, located south-east of Manchester. While Labour believes it holds firmer ground in the Greater Manchester part of the constituency, it faces potential pressure from pro-Gaza independents and a strong Reform UK challenge in the Tameside area.
Gwynne is still under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in a WhatsApp group that shared inappropriate comments about voters and MPs, for which he was suspended from the party. He has denied any pact with Burnham regarding the succession of his seat.
If Burnham were to return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge against Starmer. However, some backbenchers view the mayor, who served under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, with scepticism, complicating his potential ascent.
As the situation unfolds, the internal dynamics within the Labour Party highlight deep-seated tensions between loyalty to the current leadership and the allure of a popular figure like Burnham, setting the stage for a contentious political battle in the coming months.
