Labour is reeling after losing one of its safest parliamentary seats to the Green Party in the Gorton and Denton by-election. The result has raised fears that the Greens could erode Labour's base in London, where similar voter profiles exist.
Hannah Spencer won the Manchester poll with 14,980 votes, while Reform's Matt Goodwin came second on 10,578 votes. Labour's Angeliki Stogia trailed in third on 9,364 votes, a humiliating defeat for Sir Keir Starmer's party.
Professor Robert Ford, an elections expert at the University of Manchester, described the result as a "nightmare scenario" for the Government, warning it could prove "apocalyptic" if the Green surge is repeated in areas such as the London boroughs. Labour currently controls 21 of the 32 London borough councils and holds 58 of the city's 75 parliamentary seats.
London Labour councillors have reported a shift to the Green Party in traditional Labour areas, as well as the popularity of pro-Palestine independents in some east London boroughs. One east London Labour councillor cited voter frustrations over the cost of living, saying it was hard to convey that Labour is helping working families when savings are swallowed by rising costs.
Since Sir Keir's landslide general election win in July 2024, over two dozen Labour councillors in London have defected to other parties, many joining the Greens. Reform UK has also gained councillors from the Tories in outer London boroughs such as Barnet and Havering.
