Hospital admissions for influenza across England have shown a welcome decline for the first time this winter season, according to the latest official data. However, public health experts have issued a stark warning that the virus remains a significant threat and could resurge sharply after the Christmas period.
Encouraging Figures Mask Ongoing Risk
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) published statistics on Wednesday 24 December 2025 showing that the rate of flu admissions stood at 7.8 per 100,000 people in the week ending 21 December. This marks a decrease from the rate of 10.0 per 100,000 recorded the previous week.
Notably, the drop in admissions was observed across every age group. The most significant fall was seen among the oldest age bracket. For people aged 85 and over, the admission rate fell to 47.0 per 100,000, down from 64.5 per 100,000 in the prior week. Despite this improvement, this demographic continues to experience the highest hospitalisation rates.
Health Officials Urge Continued Vigilance
Dr Jamie Lopez-Bernal, a consultant epidemiologist at the UKHSA, described the latest figures as "encouraging" but was quick to temper optimism. "The virus is still very much with us," he cautioned, highlighting the unpredictable nature of seasonal flu.
He emphasised the importance of protective measures, especially as families gather for Christmas celebrations. "Everyone, especially those most vulnerable to these winter bugs, needs to take care to protect themselves or help not to spread these viruses to others," Dr Lopez-Bernal stated.
Looking ahead to the new year, he warned of a potential rebound, citing patterns from previous winters. "Flu is always unpredictable, is still circulating and could bounce back even further in the new year as we have seen in past years."
Vaccination Remains a Critical Defence
A central message from the UKHSA is that it is not too late for eligible individuals to receive their flu vaccination. "For anyone eligible who is still not vaccinated, it’s not too late to get protected for the rest of the winter, but time is running out," Dr Lopez-Bernal advised.
He urged the public to act promptly, stating, "Nobody wants to start the new year with flu so if appointments are still available near you, please make an appointment as soon as you can as vaccination can make all the difference in preventing severe illness and hospitalisation."
Supporting data shows that the percentage of flu tests returning a positive result in GP surgeries and hospitals in England also fell, from 21.1% to an average of 17.2% last week.
Context of Winter Pressures and Historical Data
The recent drop in flu cases occurred during a challenging period for the NHS, coinciding with the latest round of industrial action by junior doctors in England over pay and conditions. Professor Meghana Pandit, NHS England’s national medical director, had previously noted that the combination of strikes and seasonal viruses meant "many hospitals will be on high alert in the days ahead."
Current admission levels remain below the peaks witnessed in recent severe winters. Last winter, flu admissions in England peaked at 16.2 per 100,000 in the week before Christmas. The winter of 2022/23 saw an even higher peak of 18.1 per 100,000, during what was the UK's worst flu outbreak for a decade.
The UKHSA continues to recommend practical steps to curb the spread of respiratory viruses:
- Minimising contact with others if you have cold or flu symptoms.
- Considering wearing a face covering in indoor public spaces.
- Washing hands regularly with soap and water.
- Ensuring indoor spaces are well ventilated.
While the pre-Christmas dip offers a moment of relief for health services, the overarching advice from officials is clear: the threat from flu persists, and proactive measures are essential to navigate the remainder of the winter season safely.
