The number of children being born in England and Wales has fallen to a historic low, according to startling new official data that reveals a profound demographic shift.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the fertility rate dropped to just 1.49 children per woman in 2024—the lowest level recorded since the agency began collecting this data nearly a century ago in 1938. This figure falls significantly below the 2.1 rate needed to maintain a stable population without migration.
A Steady and Significant Decline
This isn't a sudden drop but the continuation of a clear and steady trend. The rate has been declining since 2010 and has now fallen for the fourth consecutive year. The current rate of 1.49 represents a sharp decrease from 1.55 in 2022 and 1.92 just a decade earlier in 2012.
The total number of live births tells a similar story, dropping to 605,479 in 2024 from 613,936 the previous year.
What's Driving the Downward Trend?
Experts point to a complex web of social and economic factors behind this decline:
- Economic pressures: Soaring costs of living, housing affordability crises, and financial instability are causing many to delay or forgo having children.
- Changing social norms: A greater focus on careers, later marriages, and different life priorities are reshaping traditional family planning.
- Improved access to contraception and education: Greater family planning options have given individuals more control over their reproductive choices.
Broader Implications for Society
This sustained low fertility rate carries major long-term consequences. An ageing population with fewer young people poses challenges for economic growth, the sustainability of public services like the NHS and state pensions, and the overall structure of society.
While the ONS data does not include the impact of migration, which has historically offset low birth rates, these new figures will undoubtedly fuel ongoing debates about population policy, family support, and the future needs of the country.
