Humanity faces grave risks, and civil unrest in the UK could occur within the next decade if urgent action is not taken to address the crumbling global food system, researchers have warned. A new report led by Anglia Ruskin University and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries highlights how biodiversity loss, climate shocks, and geopolitical conflicts are fracturing the complex network that feeds the world.
Threats to Global Food Security
Chronic pressures on the global food system are endangering the world economy, society, and even human survival, according to the study. Soil degradation and water scarcity have already reduced crop yields, increased prices, and decreased availability in recent years. These issues are now compounded by geopolitical volatility, such as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which further exposes the fragility of food security as supply chain disruptions drive up costs.
In the UK, farmers have lost billions to droughts and floods, while households face soaring food price inflation. The researchers, citing other studies, warn that civil unrest resulting from a food system crisis could be possible within the next 10 to 50 years.
Ecosystems at Tipping Points
Beyond immediate threats, long-term food security is undermined as key ecosystems approach irreversible tipping points. Large-scale deforestation, particularly in the Amazon rainforest, disrupts rainfall and carbon cycles essential for stable crop yields. The decline of pollinators, which support around three-quarters of global crop production, continues to hit food output. Overfishing, pollution, and climate change push marine ecosystems past critical thresholds, potentially leading to a collapse in fish populations.
A recent Government report compiled by intelligence officials found that biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse could trigger a global competition for food, mass migration to the UK, and even nuclear war in Asia.
Call for Radical Action
Aled Jones, lead author and director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, stated: "Our current economy is set up to deliver efficiency, profit, and thereby a just-in-time system that both drives this threat and provides little to no resilience against it. We need radical new policy and direction to tackle these emerging risks."
Jones argues that actuaries, who analyse future risks and their financial consequences, want to contribute their expertise to shape the response. Currently, financial risks around food systems, zoonotic diseases, heat or pollution-related health crises, and cyber attacks on retailers are "not being managed well."
Hugh Montgomery, chair of intensive care medicine at University College London, warned that the world is "certain to get these impacts unless we take absolutely radical action now." He added: "The health impacts are really not ones that worry me. I'm worried about human survival now. I don't mean about future generations." He described humanity as driving a "mass extinction event" with "completely catastrophic" impacts on society and the economy, leading to mass migration, conflicts, and nature collapse.
Urgent Policy and Financial Shifts Needed
The researchers urge governments, regulators, and the financial sector to integrate nature into decision-making to safeguard food systems. This includes investing in sustainable land use, protecting pollinators, and strengthening supply-chain resilience. Prevention will be cheaper than responding to acute shocks, the report argues.
Policymakers must recognise nature as the critical foundation of society and the economy, using integrated climate-nature scenarios to understand the interconnection between biodiversity and climate. Actuaries and the financial sector should acknowledge food system fragility as a systemic financial risk, with impacts far greater than agriculture's contribution to GDP.
Sandy Trust, lead author of the report, noted that events in the Gulf region "pose a significantly greater risk to global food security" than the energy crisis sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "We must incorporate biodiversity and climate change into financial decision making, to align our financial portfolios with planetary boundaries."
Government Response
A Government spokesperson said: "The UK has a resilient food system. Our land use framework gives long-term clarity to strengthen our high degree of food security and national resilience to extreme weather. This Government is also investing billions in new technology to increase yields, develop climate-resilient crops, and help farmers produce more food. Alongside this, we are increasing our water supply by building new reservoirs for the first time in 30 years, ensuring our food and water security is safeguarded for the future."
