Europe Scrambles to Counter Far-Right Threat from France
European governments are discreetly adapting their strategies to address the once-unthinkable scenario of France electing a far-right nationalist president in 2027. As a founder member of the European Union and a pivotal military power with nuclear capabilities, France's political direction holds significant implications for the continent's future.
Growing Anxiety Over French Leadership Shift
With elections scheduled for next year, policymakers in Brussels, Berlin, and Kyiv are losing sleep over the possibility of a right-wing populist government led by Marine Le Pen or her protege, Jordan Bardella. While current President Emmanuel Macron is respected as an experienced peer, albeit with occasional irritation, European leaders are increasingly anxious about his potential successor and the challenges this could pose for the EU, NATO, and Ukraine.
This concern is driving some European partners to accelerate negotiations with Paris on critical issues such as nuclear deterrence and the next long-term EU budget. The goal is to secure agreements that would be difficult for a future president to reverse. For instance, eight European countries, including the nuclear-armed United Kingdom and seven non-nuclear states, have initiated talks to join France's "forward nuclear deterrence" initiative. This collaboration will involve participation in French nuclear exercises and joint efforts on space-based early warning systems, air and missile defence, and long-range conventional missiles.
Hedging Against Global Uncertainties
Amidst conflicts in the Middle East and Iran, this move also serves as a hedge against the unpredictable presidency of Donald Trump and the United States' strategic pivot away from Europe, which has cast doubt on Washington's commitment to providing a nuclear umbrella over the continent. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced plans to take concrete steps with France before the end of this year, including establishing a nuclear strategy steering group and involving German conventional forces in French nuclear exercises. This represents a significant shift for Germany, which has relied solely on US nuclear protection for decades.
Simultaneously, some European leaders are exploring alternative alliances within the EU, such as Merz's growing cooperation with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, or considering fallback solutions in case reliance on Paris becomes untenable. Discussions have even emerged among Nordic politicians and intellectuals about the need for a "Nordic nuke," with similar talk of nuclear self-reliance in Poland.
Political Context and Domestic Challenges
This sense of panic is understandable given the broader political landscape. The National Rally party, led by Le Pen and favoured to win the next presidential election, insists that France's nuclear deterrent is strictly national and not for sharing. Additionally, the RN is anti-free trade, advocating for trade barriers and border controls within the EU, and vehemently opposes any further enlargement of the 27-nation bloc.
This stance has prompted Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukraine's strongest EU supporters to push aggressively for Kyiv's accession to the bloc in 2027, even without full rights and benefits, to avoid potential blockage from a Le Pen- or Bardella-led Paris. Under the French constitution, EU enlargement requires approval by referendum unless a three-fifths majority of both parliamentary chambers endorses it, a scenario deemed highly improbable under current conditions.
Domestically, Macron faces increasing political weightlessness as he lacks a parliamentary majority and is constrained by a significant debt burden. This limits his fiscal flexibility to advance bold initiatives like building European strategic autonomy or providing substantial support for Ukraine. When he recently announced a groundbreaking nuclear policy shift to shield European partners, a key unanswered question was who would fund the planned increase in French nuclear weapons.
Macron's Strategic Moves and Institutional Guardrails
Barred from seeking re-election after two terms, Macron has been proactive in hedging against the risk of a Eurosceptic RN victory. He has begun placing loyalists in key positions to ensure pro-European influence persists beyond his tenure. For example, last month, he appointed his young centrist budget minister, Amélie de Montchalin, to the presidency of France's court of auditors, a secure, open-ended role she could hold for nearly 30 years. Her predecessor, former Socialist finance minister Pierre Moscovici, was sent to fill France's seat on the European court of auditors.
This placement strategy extends to financial institutions like the European Central Bank and the Bank of France. Reports suggest ECB president Christine Lagarde may step down before her term ends in October 2027, allowing Macron to appoint the next French member of the bank's executive board for an eight-year term. Similarly, Bank of France governor François Villeroy de Galhau has announced early retirement to lead a charity, vacating a strategic six-year position in national banking supervision and European monetary policy for Macron to fill.
A senior presidential supporter noted, "He's methodically putting guardrails in place. All outgoing presidents have rewarded key supporters with plum jobs, but this time it's different because of the risks before us."
Budget Battles and Future Implications
The prospect of a "rogue France" is also focusing attention on settling the upcoming battle over the EU's next seven-year budget, covering 2028 to 2034. In tones reminiscent of former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher, Bardella has stated that if elected, he will demand a €2 billion rebate on France's annual EU contribution. Brussels officials and the current holders of the EU council presidency, Cyprus and Ireland, are pressing for a swift deal to secure agreement before the French presidential vote.
As Europe braces for potential political upheaval, the actions taken now could shape the continent's stability and alliances for years to come.
