The future of the triple lock is uncertain as the policy continues to increase the cost of the state pension. The measure ensures that state pension payments rise each April in line with the highest of three measures: 2.5 per cent, average earnings growth, or inflation.
Recent Increases and Criticism
The metric has provided significant pay increases in recent years, including a record 10.1 per cent boost in April 2023 due to high inflation, followed by an 8.5 per cent increase the next year using the earnings measure. In April 2026, pensioners received a 4.8 per cent increase, while other DWP benefits rose by only 3.8 per cent.
Policy experts at the Resolution Foundation are urging the government to scrap the triple lock and switch to an earnings-linked increase. The group describes the triple lock as a "terribly designed policy" that has escalated costs beyond expectations. Alex Clegg, an economist with the group, stated: "We are urging the government and politicians to announce an end date for the triple lock so that it doesn't continue indefinitely."
Labour's Pledge and Future Changes
Labour has committed to maintaining the triple lock for the remainder of this Parliament. However, Clegg argues that the increase measure cannot last indefinitely. He said: "As life expectancy rises and the population ages, we are likely to see both a rising state pension age and an end to the triple lock."
The state pension age is currently increasing from 66 to 67 between April 2026 and April 2028. Legislation also exists for a further rise from 67 to 68 between 2044 and 2046. A previous review recommended bringing forward this increase, and Labour announced in 2025 that another review would be conducted.
Proposed Alternative: Smoothed Earnings Link
Instead of the triple lock, the Resolution Foundation proposes a "smoothed earnings link" to determine state pension increases. Clegg explained: "This would ensure it rises in line with the living standards of the rest of society, while avoiding the random ratchet element of the triple lock. This uprating policy would still be far more generous than that applied to working-age benefits, which only rise in line with prices."
Impact on Private Pensions
If the state pension becomes less generous, the government may look to increase private pension contributions to ensure adequate retirement finances. The auto-enrolment system requires employers to provide workplace pensions for eligible workers, with minimum contributions of eight per cent of earnings, typically split as five per cent from the employee and three per cent from the employer.
On this issue, Clegg noted: "Auto-enrolment has been a huge success, and there is certainly a case for rising contribution rates to further boost pension saving. However, we have noted that many low-income families also face a more immediate savings challenge – around one-in-three have less than £1,000 in liquid savings. So, any increase in contribution rates should include an option for workers to save into a liquid sidecar savings scheme. This would help to tackle both our savings challenges – saving for retirement and rainy day challenges."
Government Response
A Department for Work and Pensions spokesperson said: "Supporting pensioners is a priority and we have committed to the triple lock for the rest of this parliament. The Pensions Commission is examining how we can ensure secure retirements for tomorrow’s pensioners, while our newly passed Pension Schemes Act will bring about major reform to the UK pensions system, benefitting millions of workers to the tune of up to £29,000 by the time they retire."
