Ryanair has issued a stark warning that 20 major routes could be scrapped, impacting millions of passengers, if Belgium proceeds with a planned increase in air travel taxes.
Ryanair's Threat to Remove Aircraft
The airline is threatening to withdraw five aircraft from its Charleroi base as early as this winter if the Belgian government doubles the tax on airline tickets. This move would lead to the elimination of 20 routes and approximately 150 job losses. However, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary stated during a press visit to the company's Dublin headquarters that the airline does not plan to completely close the Charleroi base.
Tax Increase Details
The federal government intends to double the airfare tax on flights exceeding 500 kilometres from next year, raising it from 5 to 10 euros. This would align it with the tax on short-haul flights, which is set to rise to 11 euros. Finance Minister Jan Jambon has confirmed there are no plans to reverse this decision.
Impact on Operations
As a result, Ryanair would withdraw five of its 19 aircraft operating from Charleroi from this winter. This would lead to the loss of 20 routes—15 at Charleroi and five at Zaventem—representing a reduction of two million passengers per year, according to O'Leary. The reduction in operations at Charleroi would also result in around 150 job losses, though affected pilots and crew members will be offered positions at alternative bases.
Ryanair's Growth Ambitions
Despite the threats, O'Leary expressed a desire to grow in Belgium. He stated that Ryanair aims to increase passenger numbers from 208 million in 2025 to 300 million in the coming years, with some of this growth targeted at Charleroi and Zaventem. However, this growth depends on the elimination of the airline ticket tax and a reduction in airport fees.
According to O'Leary, if the levy is not raised, no aircraft will be removed from Charleroi. If the charge is scrapped entirely, it would enable additional expansion in Belgium. Ryanair has unveiled an expansion strategy projecting nearly 50% more travellers in Belgium by 2030, reaching 16 million. The carrier would then re-establish its base at Brussels Airport and explore routes from Liège.
Conditions for Expansion
This expansion plan will only come to fruition if all of Ryanair's demands are met, particularly an easing of restrictions on night-time operations in Brussels. Conversely, a rise in the levy would result in a scaling back of services. O'Leary emphasized that the closure of the Charleroi base is not under consideration, but in the long term, the base could be reduced to 10 aircraft.
Fuel Costs and Fare Outlook
O'Leary also addressed the rising cost of jet fuel due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Ryanair has locked in 80% of its fuel requirements until next March at an average price of $67 per barrel, while the current market price stands at $100 or above. The airline is not hedging for the following period yet, as it anticipates price falls, but may start to worry if prices haven't dropped by September.
With consumer confidence fragile, O'Leary does not foresee fare hikes this summer. He stated that fares should remain stable, with slightly lower prices to incentivize travel, compared to the previously forecast 3% to 5% rise.
