Mortgage brokers are advising anyone with a mortgage deal ending in 2026 to act now and secure a rate. Following heightened tensions in the Middle East, with Iran and Israel exchanging missile strikes and oil prices rising, experts warn that a breakdown in the ceasefire could push mortgage rates higher.
Why Now Is the Time to Review
Manooch Suree, director of Uxbridge-based Zinga Financial Services, stressed that renewed unrest could rapidly affect mortgage pricing. He explained: "The key link is energy markets. If the conflict pushes oil and gas prices higher, that can reignite inflation concerns and lead to higher swap rates, which lenders use to price fixed-rate mortgages." Suree added that recent months have shown how quickly global events can impact rates, with some lenders repricing products upwards when markets become volatile. "It doesn't necessarily mean rates will surge overnight, but it can slow or reverse the downward trend borrowers had been hoping for," he said.
Advice for Borrowers
Suree advised: "My advice to borrowers is not to panic, but not to sit on their hands either. If your mortgage deal is ending in the next three to six months, now is a sensible time to review your options and potentially secure a rate. Most lenders allow you to lock in a deal in advance and switch again later if rates improve before completion."
Thomas Boughton, founder of London-based Artillium Real Estate Finance, agreed that "in periods of uncertainty, lenders often reprice fixed rates at short notice." He reassured borrowers that securing a rate does not mean being tied to it: "If rates improve before completion, we can move them onto a more favourable option." Tools like Nationwide's rate reservation facility allow securing today's rate for up to 90 days while still benefiting from reductions, which proved invaluable after earlier strikes this year.
Other Experts Weigh In
Gaurav Shukla, CEO of Marlow-based Home Me Mortgages, warned that heightened tensions alongside surging oil prices "has the potential to put upward pressure on mortgage rates." He added: "If inflation remains elevated, markets may scale back expectations of future rate cuts, causing swap rates to rise and potentially increasing the cost of fixed-rate mortgages." Emma Jones, managing director of Runcorn-based Whenthebanksaysno.co.uk, urged a proactive approach: "In a market as volatile as this, we encourage all borrowers... to lock into a rate just in case rates start to rise."
Riz Malik, Independent Financial Adviser at Southend-on-Sea-based R3 Wealth, noted: "Oil has gone up by just under 5% after the weekend's missile exchange, so the outlook is not great." Harry Goodliffe, director of Winchester-based HTG Mortgages, added: "Banks hate uncertainty... This won't send mortgage rates soaring overnight, but if higher oil prices fuel inflation, homeowners will end up paying the price."
