New research has found that UK food prices are on track to be 50 per cent higher by November compared to levels at the start of the cost-of-living crisis in mid-2021. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank described this as a “grim milestone,” noting that the price growth witnessed over nearly two decades before the crisis will have been achieved in just over five years, almost quadrupling the pace of food inflation.
Climate and Supply Pressures
A combination of extreme weather driven by climate change, global supply disruptions, and continued exposure to volatile oil and gas markets has compounded pressures on the food system. Analysis shows the cost of staples like pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate, eggs, and beef are all up between 50 per cent and 64 per cent. Olive oil has risen by 113 per cent. These increases reflect sensitivity to volatile oil and gas prices, synthetic fertiliser costs, and climate impacts such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves, both in the UK and in key import regions.
Household Impact
Together, these forces pushed household food bills up by an average of £605 over 2022 and 2023, with energy shocks accounting for £244 of this, according to the ECIU. More recently, five climate-impacted foods – butter, milk, beef, chocolate, and coffee – have been responsible for much of the continued pressure on food inflation, with their prices rising over four times faster than other food and drink.
Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said: “Trump’s war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike. Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record, with climate change combining with the El Niño effect kicking off this year. Three of England’s worst harvests on record have been in the past five years. Unless we get to net zero emissions to stop climate change and bring balance to the system, food prices will spiral ever further, but net zero also means burning less oil and gas, so insulating our food system from the kind of price spikes we’ve been seeing since Russia invaded Ukraine.”
Strain on Low-Income Families
The ECIU said the projected 50 per cent increase would mean that many households would continue to feel the strain well beyond the initial phase of the cost-of-living crisis, with food remaining one of the most visible and unavoidable expenses. Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation, commented: “Food prices rising this high and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate. When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises – taking parents out of work and piling pressure on an NHS that can least afford it.”
Conflict and Future Resilience
The conflict in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike. Taylor added: “This conflict is the latest shock in a series, and there will be more. The question for Government isn’t just how to respond to this crisis – it’s whether we’re finally going to build a food system resilient enough to withstand the next one.”
Latest inflation figures from Worldpanel by Numerator show grocery prices are currently 3.8 per cent higher than a year ago, with households warned that the Middle East conflict has “not yet” filtered through to supermarket shelves.
Consumer Adaptation and Food Waste
As consumers adapt to higher prices, data from the Waste and Resources Action Programme (Wrap) suggests that self-reported waste of four key products – bread, milk, chicken, and potatoes – has fallen from 21 per cent to 18.8 per cent since 2024. Despite this, food waste ranks fifth among key concerns, after food prices, diet healthiness, animal welfare, and processed or ultra-processed foods, “suggesting it is more of a background concern than a top-of-mind issue,” Wrap said. Concerns that have increased most since 2024 include pesticide use, how food producers and farmers are treated, genetically modified foods, and hormones, steroids, and antibiotics in food.
Wrap chief executive Catherine David said: “The average household of four spends a whopping £1,000 each year on good food that goes in the bin and could have been eaten.”
