Labour is bracing for a historic defeat in next week’s local elections, with polls predicting the party could lose control of multiple London councils for the first time in decades. The capital, once Labour’s safest stronghold, is now at risk of collapse as voters punish the party over housing failures and policy decisions.
Analysis of Labour’s record shows a stark decline in council house building. In the 1980s, Labour-controlled London built 52,000 council homes; during Tony Blair’s tenure, that number fell to just 280. This legacy has left the party vulnerable to challenges from the Greens, who have made housing fairness a central campaign issue.
Senior Labour figures acknowledge the crisis. One council leader described the upcoming vote as “the biggest fight of my political life”. The Greens are expected to win mayoralties in Lewisham and Hackney and may dislodge Labour from inner-city councils such as Lambeth and Southwark, the training ground for key Westminster figures including Morgan McSweeney and Steve Reed.
Beyond housing, Labour’s stance on Gaza and immigration has alienated ethnic minority voters, who make up nearly half of London’s population. Canvassing in Lewisham, voters cited the party’s complicity in the destruction of Gaza and its “Faragist” rhetoric on immigration as reasons for switching allegiance. One Labour councillor admitted: “All our chickens are coming home to roost.”
The impact on the national party could be severe. London accounts for over a third of council seats up for election, and a poor result would embarrass Keir Starmer, David Lammy and Wes Streeting, who all hold seats in the capital. With Labour already expected to lose ground in Scotland and Wales, a London wipeout would deepen the party’s decline.
