Deaths are projected to outnumber births in the UK every year from 2026, according to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures, which also indicate slower population growth than previously expected.
The ONS projects that about 1.7 million people will be added to the population between 2024 and 2034, a 2.5% increase from 69.3 million to 71 million. This is significantly lower than last year's projection of a 3 million rise over the same period, reflecting a sharp fall in net migration and lower fertility rates.
Net migration, the difference between arrivals and departures, is expected to be the only driver of population growth in the coming decades. It stood at an estimated 204,000 in the year to June 2025, down 69% from 649,000 the previous year. An additional 2.2 million people are projected through net migration by 2034, while natural change will see 450,000 more deaths than births.
The UK population is projected to peak at 72.5 million in 2054 before declining to 72.1 million by 2064 and 71.4 million by 2074. Previous projections had suggested growth until 2096. The age structure is also shifting, with pensionable age numbers rising from 12.4 million to 14.2 million by 2034, while children under 16 will fall from 12.6 million to 11 million.
James Robards, ONS head of household and population projections, said: 'Our latest projections indicate slower population growth than previously projected. This is mainly due to lower migration assumptions – reflective of the recent steep fall in net migration – and lower fertility assumptions.'
Maike Currie of PensionBee warned: 'The UK’s demographic dividend is turning into a deepening demographic drag. For the pension system, this means fewer future workers supporting more retirees.'
