The International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, released on Wednesday, does not mention Donald Trump by name, but his influence is evident throughout the 166-page report. The IMF notes that the global economy remains 'in flux' due to ongoing trade uncertainty, with US trade policy now roughly 3,860% more uncertain than a year ago, despite a halving from April peaks.
While the IMF revised its US growth forecast up to 2.0% from 1.8% in April, it warns that the boost from front-loaded orders ahead of tariff announcements is temporary. Australia's growth forecast was also revised up to 1.8% from 1.6%, but the IMF cautions that the situation is far from normal.
Australian holidaymakers have already made their judgment. Overseas arrivals and departures data for August show a record number of Australians travelling abroad, but visits to the US have plummeted. In the past year, 28% fewer Australians travelled to the US compared to the year before the pandemic, with only Russia, Israel and New Caledonia seeing larger drops—all countries affected by war or civil unrest.
In August alone, 10% fewer Australians visited the US than in the same month last year, the only decline among the top 10 travel destinations. The downward trend was consistent throughout the summer, with June, July and August visits down 3% year-on-year. Tourism Economics now forecasts an 8.2% fall in international arrivals to the US in 2025, reversing an earlier prediction of a 9% rise.
The IMF report underscores that while trade uncertainty has eased from April peaks, it remains historically high. The global economy is 'in flux', but for Australian travellers, the verdict is clear: the US under Trump has become far less attractive.
