Food prices in the UK are set to be 50% higher in November than at the start of the cost of living crisis in 2021, according to research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). The thinktank found that climate and energy shocks have driven an almost quadrupling of the pace of food price growth, with costs rising in five years at about the same rate as they had over the previous two decades.
Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation charity, warned that families on the lowest incomes are being forced to cut back on food, leading to skipped meals and child hunger. She said diet-related illness is rising, taking parents out of work and piling pressure on the NHS. The research suggests the cost of living crisis is likely to remain a key political issue into 2026.
Foods including pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate and eggs are at least 50% more expensive than five years ago, while beef prices have risen 64% and olive oil has more than doubled. The ECIU attributed the rises to products' sensitivity to volatile oil and gas prices, synthetic fertiliser costs, and climate impacts such as droughts, floods and heatwaves in the UK and key import regions.
These forces pushed household food bills up by an average of £605 over 2022 and 2023. Recently, five climate-affected foods—butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee—have been responsible for much of the continued pressure on food inflation. The thinktank added that inflation could become more extreme in the near future, with the war in the Middle East expected to drive up oil and gas prices.
Chris Jaccarini, a food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said: 'Trump's war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike. Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Niño effect kicking off this year. Three of England's worst harvests on record have been in the past five years.' Adjusting for average wages, food prices have risen by 11% since the start of the crisis, compounding rises in other household costs.
