Geoffrey Hinton, the British-Canadian computer scientist often called a “godfather of artificial intelligence”, has increased his estimate of the likelihood that AI will lead to human extinction within the next 30 years. He now puts the chance at between 10% and 20%, up from his previous estimate of 10%.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Hinton said the pace of change in AI is “much faster than expected”. When asked by guest editor and former chancellor Sajid Javid if his analysis had changed, Hinton replied: “Not really, 10% to 20%.” He added: “We’ve never had to deal with things more intelligent than ourselves before.”
Hinton, a professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, warned that humans would be like toddlers compared with highly powerful AI systems. “I like to think of it as: imagine yourself and a three-year-old. We’ll be the three-year-olds,” he said. He noted that there are very few examples of a more intelligent thing being controlled by a less intelligent thing, citing only the mother-baby relationship.
Last year, Hinton resigned from Google to speak openly about AI risks, particularly from “bad actors”. He called for government regulation, saying: “The invisible hand is not going to keep us safe. Just leaving it to the profit motive of large companies is not going to be sufficient.” He argued that only government regulation can force companies to prioritise safety research.
Hinton, who won the Nobel prize in physics this year, said most experts believe AI smarter than humans will be developed within the next 20 years. However, fellow “godfather” Yann LeCun of Meta has downplayed the existential threat, suggesting AI could save humanity from extinction.
