The Championship playoff semi-finals are set, with Millwall, Hull City, Southampton, and Middlesbrough vying for the final promotion spot to the Premier League. Opta Analyst breaks down each team's chances.
Millwall
Millwall narrowly missed automatic promotion, finishing a point behind Ipswich. They boast the best away record in the Championship, with 41 points from 23 games, including a 3-1 win at Hull in March. However, their playoff history is mixed: they have lost all three second-tier semi-finals but won four League One finals. Historically, third-placed teams have reached the final 17 times and won promotion nine times since 2004-05. Key player Femi Azeez led the team with 11 goals and seven assists.
Hull City
Hull City return to the playoffs after a nine-year Premier League absence, pipping Wrexham on the final day. Oli McBurnie scored both goals in that win and has 17 league goals this season. Hull overachieved by 19.9 points above expected, finishing sixth with 73 points—the lowest for a promoted playoff winner since Crystal Palace in 2012-13. Only two sixth-placed teams have won promotion since 2004-05: West Ham and Blackpool.
Southampton
Southampton have been the best team since Tonda Eckert took charge in November, collecting 68 points and scoring 69 goals. They are unbeaten in 19 league games and have the division's best conversion rate (14.4%). Leo Scienza has been pivotal with six goals and 10 assists under Eckert. However, Southampton won only one of 10 matches against top-six opponents. Fourth-placed teams have won promotion in three of the last four seasons.
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough spent 217 days in the top two but finished fifth. They led in 20 games without dropping points until March, but then lost 11 points from winning positions in nine games. Under Kim Hellberg, they lead the Championship in possession (62.8%) and successful passes per game (459). Boro have only one playoff promotion (1987-88) and have lost four second-tier semi-finals since.
Who Will Win?
According to the Opta supercomputer, Southampton are favourites, reaching the final in 58.8% of 10,000 simulations and winning promotion 32.9% of the time. Millwall are second favourites, while Middlesbrough and Hull are outsiders.
