Trump's 40-Year NATO Grudge: From 1987 Ads to 2026 Withdrawal Threats
Donald Trump's message has remained strikingly consistent for nearly four decades: America's allies are taking advantage, and it is time to cut them loose. This sentiment, first voiced in 1987, has escalated into a serious threat to withdraw the United States from NATO, shaking the foundations of Western security.
The 1987 Prelude: A Businessman's Grievance
Long before social media existed, a young businessman named Donald Trump spent $94,801 on September 2, 1987, to place full-page advertisements in the New York Times and Washington Post. In these ads, he questioned why the U.S. was paying billions to protect allies who offered little in return. He specifically criticized the Persian Gulf's marginal significance to American oil supplies, noting that others were "almost totally dependent" on it, and expressed anger over allies failing to send mine sweeper vessels to assist U.S. efforts.
This early outburst set the tone for Trump's enduring disdain for NATO, a theme that has persisted through his presidency and beyond.
Escalating Threats: From Campaign Trail to Office
Trump's criticisms intensified during his political career. In 2016, he slammed NATO members for not "paying their bills" and suggested the U.S. might not defend Baltic states against Russia if they did not meet obligations. Upon taking office in 2017, he declared NATO "obsolete." At a tumultuous 2018 summit in Brussels, he directly told European leaders he was considering leaving the alliance.
After leaving office in 2021, former officials like National Security Advisor John Bolton revealed that Trump had threatened to destroy NATO, predicting he would "almost certainly withdraw" in a second term. On the 2024 campaign trail, Trump suggested Russia should be able to do "whatever the hell they want" with allies who did not pay their fair share.
The Iran War Litmus Test and Recent Tensions
Upon reassuming office in 2025, Trump's relationship with European allies initially improved as they committed to increased defense spending. However, tensions flared again when he threatened to invade Greenland, a territory of NATO ally Denmark, and criticized allies for holding back in Afghanistan.
The Iran war became a critical test for Trump, who was notably vexed by allies not sending mine sweepers—echoing his 1987 complaints. By March 2026, he accused NATO of being a "paper tiger" and labeled allies "cowards" for not helping open the Strait of Hormuz, which he blamed for high oil prices.
In a Miami rally on March 27, 2026, Trump told a crowd, "We would have always been there for them, but now, based on their actions, I guess we don't have to be, do we?" He later confirmed on April 1 that he was "absolutely" considering a U.S. withdrawal from NATO, ahead of a speech on the Iran war.
NATO's Foundation and the Article 5 Dilemma
Founded in 1949 with the Washington Treaty, NATO was designed to counter Soviet threats and has grown to 32 nations. Its core principle, Article 5, pledges that an attack on one member is an attack on all, invoked only once after 9/11. Experts warn that Trump's remarks could embolden Russia, as the U.S. spends more on military than all other members combined, making a withdrawal potentially catastrophic for the alliance.
François Heisbourg, a senior adviser at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, called Trump's statements a "very disturbing" new step, predicting Ukraine would be the first casualty and forcing European countries to ramp up defense spending.
Legal and Political Hurdles to Withdrawal
Despite Trump's threats, withdrawing from NATO is not straightforward. In 2023, Congress passed legislation, signed by President Joe Biden, barring any U.S. president from unilaterally suspending or terminating the Washington Treaty. Withdrawal requires a two-thirds Senate majority, a measure co-sponsored by then-Senator Marco Rubio, now Trump's Secretary of State and National Security Adviser.
Rubio has since shifted his stance, suggesting a reexamination of the alliance. Legal experts are divided: a 2020 Department of Justice opinion argued the president has exclusive authority to withdraw from treaties, but the issue has never been heard by the Supreme Court. Trump could also engage in "quiet quitting" by not appointing ambassadors or withdrawing troops.
Max Bergmann, a former State Department official, noted, "If the president and the military are not committed to NATO and European security, then I don't think there's much Congress can actually do to hold that back."
Allied Reactions and Future Implications
European officials hope Trump's threats are merely a gambit to force higher defense spending. The UK is hosting a virtual meeting of 35 countries to secure shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but opposition to the Iran war has strained relations. Trump has frequently criticized British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, calling him "no Churchill," while allies like Italy and Spain have denied support for U.S. military operations.
As fault lines spread within NATO, Trump's four-decade grudge continues to challenge the alliance's stability, with potential ramifications for global security and diplomatic relations.
