A major new poll indicates that Reform UK may need to form an alliance with the Conservatives to govern, as British politics becomes increasingly fragmented. The research, conducted by Electoral Calculus on behalf of communications agency PLMR and based on Find Out Now surveys, highlights the potential for political chaos, with no single party close to securing a majority if an election were held today.
Seat Projections
The seat-by-seat estimates suggest that Nigel Farage's Reform UK would emerge as the largest party with 188 MPs. The Conservatives would not be far behind, securing 159 seats. Meanwhile, Labour faces an extraordinary collapse, dropping from over 400 MPs to just 86. The Greens are projected to win 71 constituencies, including an astonishing sweep of traditional Labour strongholds in London, such as Keir Starmer's own Holborn & St Pancras seat. The Liberal Democrats would gain 61 MPs, the SNP 44, and Plaid Cymru 17.
Coalition Challenges
Even with support from independents and Northern Ireland parties, a 'rainbow coalition' would struggle to command a majority in the House of Commons. A majority is technically 326 of the 650 MPs, although governments can survive with fewer. A hung parliament with such a wide split of support is thought to be without precedent in modern politics.
Polling Methodology
The research uses the MRP technique, which maps poll findings onto the demographic characteristics of individual areas. It also accounts for tactical voting, which the team believes will reduce Reform's performance as opponents back whoever is most likely to keep them out in their constituency.
The Find Out Now polling, conducted among 5,559 people between March 27 and April 7, suggests Reform had the highest national support at 24 per cent. However, this is down from the party's recent peak, when it was projected to secure 335 seats in January. The Conservatives have recovered to 21 per cent, with Labour on 17 per cent.
Expert Analysis
Kevin Craig, head of PLMR, commented: 'When it comes to pinpointing who voters want making decisions on their behalf, it is clear that Reform UK do not have the trust of the public. Reform's momentum appears to be slowing, which points towards a more competitive environment and the likelihood of a hung parliament. The message right now, looking ahead to the General Election, is that it is all up for grabs.'
He added: 'PLMR's latest polling also highlights a critical challenge ahead of the local elections – many voters simply don't know who is running their local council. When fewer than half can correctly identify who is in charge, it becomes much harder for parties to rely on their local record to win support.'
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: 'Reform remains the largest party, but is noticeably less popular than at its peak last year, with its national support sliding back to where it was at the start of 2025. Nigel Farage now faces the challenge of holding on to some voters drifting back to the Conservatives on his left and others possibly shifting towards Restore Britain as a new right-wing alternative. If fragmentation on the right increases, Reform could face similar challenges to those Labour has experienced due to the vote splitting on the left.'
