Anas Sarwar's High-Stakes Challenge to Keir Starmer's Leadership
For the vast majority of Scots under the age of thirty, the concept of a Scottish Labour victory in a Holyrood election is a distant historical footnote rather than a living memory. Over this extended period of political wilderness, the party has cycled through no fewer than seven different leaders, each arriving with bold promises to restore Labour to government in Scotland. Yet every single one has ultimately faced humiliating defeat at the hands of a seemingly unbeatable Scottish National Party.
Anas Sarwar occupies a unique position in this narrative of decline. He is the only Scottish Labour leader during this era—and indeed the first since former First Minister Jack McConnell—to be granted a second opportunity to secure the keys to Bute House, having already led the party to defeat in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. This time, Sarwar is resolutely determined that no obstacle, whether circumstance or individual, will impede his path to power.
A Calculated Betrayal of Party Loyalty
When Sarwar convened a press conference to publicly demand the resignation of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, the Glasgow MSP was acutely aware he was embarking on the most perilous gamble of his political career. He understood perfectly the cultural ethos of the Labour Party, which stands in stark contrast to the Conservative tradition. Labour has no established history of routinely deposing its leader every few years, a practice that became commonplace during the latter stages of the last Tory administration. The party fundamentally does not tolerate overt disloyalty directed at its sitting leader.
Previously, Sarwar and Starmer were considered allies, with the Prime Minister even sharing a stage with the Scottish leader at the Scottish Labour Party conference as recently as February of the previous year. However, Sarwar has executed a cold political calculation, underpinned by a logic that is difficult to refute. Prior to the UK general election, he was positioned on a clear trajectory to become First Minister and finally terminate Labour's dismal electoral record in Scotland.
He was consistently outmanoeuvring John Swinney, the latest in a line of SNP politicians attempting to revitalise the party following Nicola Sturgeon's resignation and Humza Yousaf's tumultuous, year-long tenure. The SNP appeared destined for a comprehensive and arguably deserved defeat whenever Scottish voters next went to the polls for a Holyrood election.
The Turning Tide: A UK Victory Becomes a Scottish Liability
Then, Labour secured victory in the Westminster general election. Almost immediately, everything began to unravel for Scottish Labour's prospects. Sir Keir Starmer's premiership enjoyed a remarkably brief honeymoon period before it became evident that many viewed him as ill-suited to national leadership. His government has been besieged by a relentless series of crises, scandals, and policy U-turns.
Disillusioned voters across the UK, including in Scotland and Wales, began to withdraw their support from Labour. Suddenly, through no direct fault of his own, Anas Sarwar's promising route to Bute House was obliterated as Scottish voters expressed their profound dissatisfaction with the UK government's cascade of unforced errors.
Sarwar's reasoning became clear: if Sir Keir could be replaced by a more politically adept figure, perhaps Scottish Labour's fortunes could be resuscitated in time for the crucial Holyrood polling day in May. Few political observers believe Starmer can survive the coming weeks regardless. Even setting aside the persistent controversy surrounding his appointment of Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador, an expected defeat in the imminent Gorton and Denton by-election—a contest where Starmer personally blocked the popular Andy Burnham from standing as the Labour candidate—is likely to be terminal.
Should he somehow endure the fallout from a by-election loss, the Prime Minister then faces the prospect of severe humiliation in the local and devolved elections scheduled for May 7th. This grim outlook arguably strengthens Sarwar's argument that sacrificing a failing leader could be a worthwhile trade if it salvages Labour's broader electoral chances.
The Labour Orthodoxy: Loyalty Above Electoral Victory
Unfortunately for the Scottish Labour leader, this pragmatic calculus runs directly counter to the entrenched mindset of the UK Labour Party. The precedent was set clearly in 2009. Despite opinion polls unequivocally indicating that Gordon Brown would lose the impending general election, MPs who argued for replacing him with a more electable leader—such as then-Home Secretary Alan Johnson—to retain power were outnumbered by those who deemed loyalty to Brown a principle more sacred than electoral victory.
Notably, a significant portion of those prioritising loyalty held safe seats likely to withstand a Conservative national win. When one MP voiced the public's settled judgement on Brown directly to him at a Parliamentary Labour Party meeting, they faced threats of deselection and a formal vote of no confidence from their local party—a stark warning to anyone daring to suggest winning elections might trump fealty to an individual leader.
This remains the dominant Labour psyche. Private criticism, discreet text messages, or gossip in the tearooms lamenting Sir Keir as a liability are all tolerated, even commonplace. The true transgression against party orthodoxy is vocalising these private sentiments in the public domain. This week, Anas Sarwar stands unequivocally guilty of that exact crime. He articulated what numerous Labour MPs and MSPs whisper privately, but many will never forgive him for breaking the cardinal rule: disloyalty must remain a private affair.
A Potential Path to Redemption for Scottish Labour
Despite the conspicuous and embarrassing lack of public support for his move—even from some of his own MSPs—Sarwar's extraordinary gamble might still yield dividends. The era of devolution has been notably unkind to Scottish Labour. While Welsh Labour has triumphed in every devolved election since 1999 (though recently suffering voter backlash for reasons mirroring Scottish Labour's plight), its Scottish counterpart has persistently struggled to convince voters it will prioritise Scotland in its dealings with the UK party.
Welsh Labour benefited from the early leadership of Rhodri Morgan, who successfully challenged Tony Blair's preferred candidate to become First Minister, instantly establishing he would not be a mere puppet for Downing Street. Scottish Labour experienced no such defining rupture with London; successive leaders were widely perceived as subordinate extensions of the UK party, obediently following its lead.
This perception was first seriously challenged by former leader Johann Lamont (2011-2014), who famously accused the UK party of treating Scottish Labour as a "branch office." There was a detectable hint of nervousness in the First Minister's tone this week when he attacked Sarwar's "opportunism." Whether Sarwar's gambit succeeds or fails, he has fundamentally altered the political dynamic. It will now be considerably more difficult for the SNP to dismiss him as a mere "branch office manager" now that he has publicly demanded the resignation of his own party's UK leader.
The SNP has long derived significant political capital by portraying Scottish Labour as a feeble imitation of London Labour. Anas Sarwar has, in one bold stroke, effectively disarmed this potent nationalist weapon. His stand, while undoubtedly principled in part, is also driven by the classic political motors of cynical calculation and burning personal ambition—traits inherent to any successful politician. His objective is clear: to win the Holyrood election and become First Minister. If accelerating the departure of a failing Prime Minister is a necessary step towards that noble ambition, Sarwar evidently considers it a reasonable price to pay.
