Andy Burnham has a better chance than Keir Starmer of winning a general election against Nigel Farage's Reform UK, according to a new poll by More in Common. The Greater Manchester mayor beats the Reform UK leader in head-to-head polls by 14 percentage points, the research found.
The findings will boost Burnham's supporters, who argue he should replace Sir Keir to prevent Farage from becoming prime minister. However, More in Common warned that a potentially 'dangerous' Brexit row within Labour could cost Burnham his chances of winning the Makerfield by-election, where he has been selected as Labour's candidate.
To challenge for the Labour leadership, Burnham must first win the parliamentary seat, which voted to leave the European Union in 2016 and where Reform UK is a strong contender. Labour has moved the writ for the election, likely to be held on 18 June.
Luke Tryl from More in Common said that in a straight head-to-head, Burnham would beat Farage by 14 points, though with many 'don't knows'. Burnham also performed about 10 points better than Sir Keir against Farage. However, Tryl cautioned that the poll is hypothetical and that politicians often perform better outside Westminster.
A separate More in Common poll found that if Burnham took charge of Labour, the party's support would rise by eight percentage points to 30%, ahead of Reform UK on 27% and the Conservatives on 20%. But the internal Labour row over rejoining the EU could undermine Burnham's chances in Makerfield, a 'prime Reform target' and a seat 'tailor-made' for Farage's party.
Tryl emphasised that if voters in Makerfield see the rejoin debate as a sign that Labour has moved on from the lessons of the 2016 vote, that would be 'more dangerous'. He also noted that after the local elections, Reform 'have a claim to be the only truly national party', while Labour and the Tories are 'increasingly becoming regional parties'.
