Nigel Farage Confident of Reform UK Victory in Gorton and Denton By-Election
Nigel Farage has today made a bold declaration that his party, Reform UK, will "throw everything" at the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election in a determined bid to defeat Labour's Andy Burnham. The party leader went further, confidently asserting that Reform are now the "favourites" to emerge victorious from the contest, signalling a significant shift in the political landscape of this Greater Manchester constituency.
Farage's Direct Challenge to 'King in the North' Burnham
Reacting swiftly to Mr Burnham's announcement of his candidacy, Mr Farage issued a stark warning to the Mayor of Greater Manchester. He told the Mail on Sunday: "If the King in the North thinks he can waltz back down to Westminster; he's got another thing coming. We will throw everything at this contest." This rhetoric sets the stage for a fiercely contested battle, with Reform activists reportedly already mobilising on the ground in the Denton area of the constituency.
Candidate Speculation and Electoral History
While there has been speculation that Zia Yusuf, Reform's high-profile head of policy, could be selected as the party's candidate, Mr Farage confirmed that a final decision has not yet been made. The electoral context is notable: at the last General Election, Reform's Lee Moffitt secured 5,142 votes, finishing a distant second behind Labour's Andrew Gwynne, who won with 18,555. However, Reform's subsequent surge in national opinion polls suggests Mr Farage believes the party has a realistic chance of securing a major upset, with some even speculating about his potential as a future Prime Minister.
The Galloway Factor and Labour Vote Split
Mr Farage strategically raised the prospect of a significant split in the Labour vote, pointing to the potential challenge from left-wing firebrand George Galloway. Reports this weekend indicate that Mr Galloway, leader of the Workers' Party, is likely to stand in the by-election. Mr Farage emphasised this dynamic, stating: "Not only would Andy Burnham have to fight Reform, but George Galloway will split his vote. Burnham's got to take on Reform and George Galloway, and I would say that Reform are favourites."
This analysis is grounded in recent history: just under two years ago, Mr Galloway inflicted a notable defeat on Labour in the North-West by overturning a large majority in the 2024 Rochdale by-election, although Labour narrowly regained the seat months later in the general election. Mr Galloway's fiercely pro-Gaza stance is expected to resonate strongly within the Gorton and Denton constituency, where nearly 30 percent of the electorate is Muslim, potentially drawing crucial support away from Labour.
Galloway's Potential Impact and Historical Appeal
An ally of Mr Galloway hinted at his likely candidacy, telling the Express: "If it's Burnham [for Labour], I'd expect George to throw his hat into the ring. He likes the headlines… If George does stand he would do some serious damage [to Labour]." They also noted that Mr Galloway would enjoy significant backing due to his historic role in opposing Tony Blair's wars in the Middle East, adding another layer of appeal to certain voter segments. Mr Galloway was approached for comment on these developments.
Despite Mr Burnham's acknowledged popularity across the Greater Manchester region, as privately noted by his backers, the combined threat from Reform UK and George Galloway creates a complex and volatile electoral scenario. This by-election is shaping up to be a critical test of Labour's hold in the North-West and Reform's growing influence in British politics.
