Iran Crisis Deepens as US Strikes Target Supreme Leader Khamenei
In a dramatic escalation of tensions, the United States and Israel launched a massive military operation against Iran in the early hours of February 28, 2026. Codenamed Operation Epic Fury, the strikes involved hundreds of missiles targeting multiple sites across the Gulf nation, including a compound in Tehran where Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is known to reside.
A Significant Departure from Previous Confrontations
This operation marks a stark departure from previous confrontations. Following the U.S. drone strike that killed Qasem Soleimani in 2020 and the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear sites in June 2025, Tehran responded with limited, measured attacks on American bases. Experts now warn that none of that restraint is expected this time.
The scale and scope of Operation Epic Fury far exceed any previous military action against Iran. It comes after months of U.S. military buildup in the region and apparent diplomatic efforts, including nuclear talks in Oman and Geneva. However, any prospect of a peaceful resolution now appears completely off the table.
Washington's Apparent Aims and Tehran's Calculated Response
Clearly, Washington is intent on crippling Iran's ballistic missile program, a capability that allows Tehran to threaten the region directly. This has been a longstanding point of contention, with Iran resisting attempts to limit its missiles in any nuclear deal. The strikes appear aimed at launch sites, production facilities, and storage locations for these weapons.
However, the Trump administration's aims seem to have expanded. By targeting leadership compounds and confirming Khamenei as a target, the operation signals a push for regime change. President Donald Trump reinforced this in a video message, telling Iranians, "When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take."
In response, Iran has promised to use "crushing" force. As an expert on Middle East affairs and a former senior official at the National Security Council, I believe the calculus in both capitals is fundamentally different. Iran's leaders likely view this as an existential threat, with no obvious diplomatic off-ramp to avoid further escalation.
The High-Stakes Gambles and Potential Consequences
The U.S. administration has made several calculated gambles:
- Political and Legal Risk: Trump ordered Operation Epic Fury without Congressional authorization, relying on Article 2 powers. The 1973 War Powers Act now gives him 60 days to conclude operations or seek formal approval.
- Domestic Iranian Response: The U.S. is betting that Iranians, many unhappy with the regime, will heed Trump's call for change, despite the regime's brutal crackdown on protests in January 2026.
- Military Capability: Washington assumes that Iran, even facing an existential threat, lacks the capability to drag the U.S. into a prolonged, high-casualty conflict.
This last point is crucial. While Iran has no nuclear bomb and a limited stockpile of drones and missiles, it possesses significant unconventional capabilities. These include:
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, which coordinates unconventional warfare.
- Partnerships with proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shia militias in Iraq, who may conduct attacks on U.S. interests.
- The potential for terrorism and mass casualty events, which could create political pressure, though unlikely to lead to a full-scale U.S. ground invasion given public and Congressional appetite.
What Happens Next in an Unpredictable Conflict
It remains unclear whether the initial strikes are a prelude to more attacks or a pause to force Iran to sue for peace. Diplomacy seems to have sailed; Trump appears to have lost patience with negotiations, wanting the regime gone entirely.
Iran's response will likely utilize all its degraded but still potent capabilities, aiming for something beyond previous retaliatory strikes—potentially including American deaths, a risk Trump has acknowledged. The regime, with "the gloves off," will seek a knockout blow, while the U.S. pushes for regime change.
No one has a crystal ball, and this operation may continue for days or longer. But one thing is clear: Iran's regime faces an existential threat. Do not expect it to show restraint. The situation is volatile, with significant risks for regional stability and global security.
