A former US ambassador has issued a stark warning to Donald Trump, urging him not to repeat past mistakes by forcing through a detrimental peace agreement for Ukraine simply for the sake of having a deal signed.
Lessons from History: The Perils of Rushed Agreements
Daniel Fried, who served as US ambassador to Poland and helped coordinate the Western response to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, emphasised that while the Ukraine conflict differs from the Afghanistan withdrawal, crucial lessons must be learned. The Trump administration is actively pursuing an end to the war, having presented Ukraine with a 28-point plan after discussions with Russia.
Subsequent negotiations in Geneva have produced an alternative 19-point framework that has gained significant support from Ukrainian officials. However, uncertainty remains about whether Moscow will ultimately endorse this revised proposal. European allies have expressed growing concern that President Trump's apparent urgency to secure any agreement could pressure Volodymyr Zelensky into accepting unfavourable terms.
Speaking during a briefing organised by the Atlantic Council think-tank, Fried stated: "A bad framework, such as the happily-overtaken 28 points, could presage a strategic defeat for Ukraine, for Europe, and for the free world generally."
The Essential Elements of a Sustainable Peace
Matthew Kroenig, vice president of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, acknowledged that any resolution will inevitably require difficult compromises given Russia's occupation of approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory. He noted that even the initial 28-point plan contained some positive elements that negotiators could build upon.
"It was good that it said Ukraine should maintain sovereignty, good that it permitted EU membership, good that it permitted American security guarantees, which is really the most important part of the Nato guarantee," Kroenig explained. He stressed that the paramount objective must be preventing Vladimir Putin from transforming Ukraine into a puppet state.
Journalist and foreign policy expert Myroslava Gongadze, currently in Ukraine, revealed that while details of the new 19-point plan remain confidential, two major sticking points persist for President Zelensky. "The question of territorial guarantees and question of Nato membership is left to a Zelensky decision," she stated, noting that Ukrainian officials have indicated these issues may require resolution at a leaders' summit.
A Narrow Path Forward
Fried expressed cautious optimism that negotiations could still produce an acceptable outcome for Ukraine and its international partners, though he described the viable path as "narrow, steep, and rough." He emphasised that Russian cooperation would require sustained pressure from the Trump administration.
"The bad news is the Russians will not negotiate anything decent without being pressured," Fried observed. "And it's still not clear whether the Trump administration is going to pressure the Russians sufficiently to get past Putin's predictable and [Sergei] Lavrov's predictable blocking, but they might."
As negotiations continue to evolve rapidly, Fried concluded with a simple message for observers: "Things are in motion. Stay tuned." The international community watches closely, aware that the outcome could reshape European security for generations.
