Nearly four years after Russia anticipated conquering Ukraine within just four days, the nation continues to stand strong against its aggressor. What began as a swift invasion plan has transformed into a protracted conflict with no clear end in sight, raising crucial questions about potential peace agreements and their implications for global security.
The Complex Reality of Peace Negotiations
Recent developments suggest that any potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement cannot be simply categorised as either victory or defeat. According to analysis by Stephen Wertheim of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, the conflict represents an in-between outcome containing profound elements of both success and compromise.
The Trump administration's recently proposed 28-point peace plan, though widely criticised as capitulation to Moscow, actually offers Kyiv significant strategic advantages. Under these terms, Ukraine would face no meaningful limits on its peacetime military strength, with the only requirement being a cap of 600,000 personnel - a figure that likely exceeds what Ukraine would maintain in peacetime regardless.
Furthermore, Ukraine would receive substantial security guarantees from both the United States and European nations, described as potentially the strongest in history, even if falling short of full NATO membership commitments.
America's Historical Struggle With Compromise
The United States has demonstrated a chronic inability to accept mixed outcomes in military conflicts throughout its history, a pattern that now risks repeating itself in Ukraine. Washington's powerful voices across both political parties appear ready to reject any compromise settlement, despite the potential consequences for Ukraine's future.
Historical parallels reveal concerning patterns. During the Vietnam War, President Richard Nixon pursued "peace with honour" for four additional years after taking office, resulting in extensive bombing of Cambodia and Laos that merely delayed an inevitable outcome. Similarly, in Afghanistan, recognition that the Taliban couldn't be militarily defeated came a decade into the conflict, yet minimal attempts at power-sharing negotiations meant the war continued for another ten years with steadily deteriorating results.
America has also demonstrated difficulty in accepting its own victories. Following the successful 1991 Gulf War that ejected Iraqi forces from Kuwait, the United States shifted objectives toward regime change in Baghdad, ultimately leading to decades of conflict and the disastrous 2003 invasion.
Ukraine's Strategic Position and Future Security
Despite the challenging circumstances, Ukraine has achieved remarkable successes that must be acknowledged. Russia has suffered approximately 600,000 casualties according to estimates - roughly ten times Soviet casualties during the entire Afghanistan conflict - for what amount to modest territorial gains.
Ukraine has demonstrated its ability to impose severe costs on its much larger neighbour, proving wrong those who doubted its capacity to resist before the 2022 invasion began. The nation maintains control over the vast majority of its territory and population, standing as a testament to Ukrainian resilience.
Looking forward, if Ukraine can rebuild and maintain a strong military with continued Western support, it stands a reasonable chance of deterring future aggression once active hostilities conclude. While this outcome may not satisfy those seeking absolute security through NATO membership, it represents a substantial improvement over Ukraine's pre-war position and demonstrates the nation's capacity for self-defence.
The reality remains that total security is unavailable to any nation, including Ukraine. Even NATO membership provides no absolute guarantee, as countries that have declined to fight directly for Ukraine thus far would be unlikely to do so under different circumstances in the future.
As Wertheim concludes, Ukraine requires itself and realistic external support rather than geopolitical miracles. The United States, separated by an ocean, similarly needs no extraordinary outcomes in Ukraine. The challenge lies in recognising what has been accomplished while making pragmatic decisions about the path forward.
