More than 75,000 people were killed in the first 16 months of the war in Gaza, at least 25,000 more than the official death toll at the time, according to a study published in the Lancet Global Health medical journal on Wednesday.
The research, which surveyed 2,000 representative families in Gaza, found that 42,200 women, children and elderly people died between 7 October 2023 and 5 January 2025, comprising 56% of violent deaths. The study confirmed that the Gaza health ministry's reporting on the proportion of these groups was accurate.
Authors of the study, including Professor Michael Spagat of Royal Holloway, University of London, estimated that 3-4% of Gaza's population had been killed violently, with an additional 8,200 deaths attributable to indirect effects such as malnutrition and untreated disease. Spagat cautioned against comparing indirect deaths to conflicts like Kosovo or Darfur, noting Gaza's unique circumstances.
The findings come after a senior Israeli security officer told journalists last month that figures compiled by Gaza health authorities were broadly accurate, marking a reversal of official Israeli criticism. The officer reportedly said about 70,000 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli attacks since October 2023.
The study covers the most intense period of Israel's offensive but not the peak of the humanitarian crisis, as famine was declared in August last year. It also challenges Israeli claims of a near equal combatant-to-civilian death ratio, though the exact proportion remains disputed.
