Drug-resistant infections could kill 10 million people annually by 2050, exceeding current cancer death rates, according to a report commissioned by Prime Minister David Cameron. The analysis, led by economist Jim O'Neill, warns that the global economic cost could reach $100 trillion (£63 trillion).
O'Neill, known for coining the terms BRIC and MINT, told the BBC that the loss would be equivalent to 35 years without the UK's contribution to the global economy. The study, modelled by Rand Europe and KPMG, found that drug-resistant E. coli, malaria, and tuberculosis would have the biggest impact.
Currently, antimicrobial resistance causes at least 50,000 deaths annually in Europe and the US. Without action, that figure could rise more than tenfold by 2050. The impact would be most severe in developing nations, with Nigeria seeing more than one in four deaths attributable to drug-resistant infections, and India facing an additional two million deaths per year.
The review team believes the analysis underestimates the true threat, as it does not account for the loss of routine medical procedures that rely on antibiotics, such as joint replacements, caesarean sections, and chemotherapy. Without effective antibiotics, these treatments would become riskier or impossible, potentially costing an additional $100 trillion by 2050.
O'Neill stressed the need for international action, particularly from BRIC and MINT nations, and hopes the issue will be a focus at the 2016 G20 summit in China. Dr Jeremy Farrar of the Wellcome Trust described the problem as not just medical but economic and social, while England's chief medical officer, Prof Dame Sally Davies, called the report a compelling step forward in understanding the threat.
The review team expressed optimism that solutions exist, including new drugs, vaccines, and alternative therapies being developed by university researchers and biotech entrepreneurs. However, they warned that inaction would be far costlier than taking steps now to curb antimicrobial resistance.
