Severe Water Stress: Why Desalination Plants Are the Gulf's Greatest Weakness
A recent attack on desalination plants has sparked fears of escalating strikes in the Gulf region, but Iran's own vulnerability to drought may be a restraining factor. In 1983, the CIA identified desalinated potable water as the most crucial commodity in the Gulf, warning that successful attacks on multiple plants could trigger national crises, panic flights, and civil unrest. The primary threat was noted as Iran.
Recent Attacks and Denials
Decades later, tensions flared when Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, accused the US of attacking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a blatant crime. The US denied responsibility, but the next day, Bahrain reported an attack on one of its plants, blaming Iranian aggression. This raised concerns about a tit-for-tat cycle targeting critical water infrastructure, yet the assaults ceased abruptly.
Dependence on Desalination
Potable water has always been scarce in the Gulf due to low rainfall and lack of permanent rivers. Historically, groundwater sufficed, but with the oil industry's growth since the 1950s, demand surged, aquifers were depleted, and desalination became essential. Today, 70% of Saudi Arabia's drinking water comes from desalination plants, with figures at 86% in Oman, 42% in the UAE, and 90% in Kuwait. Even Israel relies on desalination for half its potable water.
The Middle East accounts for roughly 40% of global desalinated water production, providing nearly 29 million cubic metres daily. Nima Shokri, director of the Institute of Geo-Hydroinformatics at Hamburg University of Technology, stated that modern cities in several Persian Gulf states would not function without it.
Vulnerabilities and Environmental Risks
Targeting desalination plants could quickly create water shortages, as many cities depend on a small number of large coastal facilities. Unlike oil infrastructure, these plants are hard to replace or repair quickly, potentially forcing water rationing. Attacks also pose environmental risks, with potential releases of chemicals like sodium hypochlorite and sulfuric acid, as noted by the Conflict and Environment Observatory.
Strategic Restraint and Iran's Water Woes
The halt in attacks may stem from strategic restraint. Shokri suggested that attacking critical civilian infrastructure risks severe humanitarian consequences and international condemnation, which could widen conflicts. Iran itself faces severe water stress from drought, over-extraction of groundwater, and climate breakdown, making retaliatory strikes on its own water infrastructure counterproductive.
In 1983, Iran promised not to attack Arab desalination plants, but this commitment is now uncertain. After US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth threatened intense strikes, Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned of an eye-for-an-eye approach, indicating potential escalation if infrastructure is targeted.
The Gulf's reliance on desalination remains a glaring weakness, with regional tensions underscoring the fragility of water security in an arid landscape.
