The risk of state-backed attacks on undersea cables, which carry 99% of global intercontinental data traffic, is likely to increase, according to a report by US cybersecurity firm Recorded Future. The analysis highlights a series of incidents in the Baltic Sea and around Taiwan over the past 18 months as harbingers of further disruptive activity.
Recorded Future identified nine incidents in these regions during 2024 and 2025, pointing to increased malicious activity from Russia and China. While most cable damage remains accidental, the report warns that campaigns attributed to Russia in the North Atlantic-Baltic region and China in the western Pacific are likely to grow in frequency as geopolitical tensions rise.
Notable incidents include the severing of two cables between Lithuania and Sweden in November, blamed on an anchor dragged by a Chinese vessel, and a ship carrying Russian oil that cut cables between Finland and Estonia in December. Around Taiwan, a Chinese-crewed freighter cut cables in February by zigzagging over them, and a Chinese-owned cargo ship was cited as the likely cause of damage to a Taiwan-US cable the previous month.
The report notes that while definitive attribution is difficult, these actions align with Russia and China's strategic objectives and capabilities. A successful attack on multiple cables in deeper waters would likely require state-sponsored actors and could occur before outright conflict. Recorded Future identified 44 cable damages in 18 months, with anchor dragging causing a quarter and unknown causes nearly a third.
The UK government's recent strategic defence review acknowledged the threat to subsea cabling and recommended the Royal Navy take a leading role in securing undersea pipelines and cables. The report also highlights vulnerabilities for EU island states like Malta, Cyprus, and Ireland, which rely heavily on submarine cables for international communications.
