Governments worldwide are planning to increase fossil fuel production over the coming decades, putting international climate targets at risk, according to new data. The Production Gap 2025 report, published on Monday by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics and the International Institute for Sustainable Development, analysed 20 major fossil fuel producers, including the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, Canada, Brazil, Australia and the UK, which together account for about 80% of global output.
The report found that nations are now planning higher levels of coal, oil and gas extraction than they were in 2023, when comparable data was last compiled. This trend contradicts commitments made at UN climate summits to “transition away from fossil fuels” and phase down production, particularly of coal. If all planned extraction goes ahead, the world will produce more than double the quantity of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global temperature rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Only the UK, Australia and Norway plan to reduce oil and gas production by 2030 compared with 2023 levels. Eleven of the 20 countries surveyed have increased their production plans since 2023. For coal, several nations including China, the US, Germany and Indonesia plan cuts, but India, Russia, Colombia and Australia intend to ramp up mining. Emily Ghosh, a programme director at the Stockholm Environment Institute in the US, said: “Fossil fuel production should have peaked and started to fall. Every year of delay significantly increases the pressure on the climate.”
Demand for fossil fuels remains a key factor. Neil Grant of Climate Analytics noted that renewable energy growth has so far been an addition alongside fossil fuel demand, without peak demand being reached. However, as transport and heating become electrified, less primary energy is needed, which could reduce demand. But lower demand could also make fossil fuels cheaper, potentially spurring a rebound effect. Grant warned: “Many governments are thinking in terms of a world where the energy transition happens very incrementally. There’s a lot of danger, including that the voice of the fossil fuel lobby only gets louder and holds us back from this change to a cleaner, better, greener economy.”
The report comes as world leaders prepare to meet UN Secretary-General António Guterres in New York this week on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Guterres is expected to urge countries to come up with fresh commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ahead of the Cop30 summit in Brazil this November. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments have pledged to limit global warming, but the new data suggests current production plans are incompatible with those goals.
