For the first time since the conclusion of the Second World War, France has registered more deaths than births, marking a significant shift in the nation's long-standing demographic profile.
The latest figures from France's national statistics institute, Insee, reveal that in 2025 the country recorded 651,000 deaths compared to 645,000 births. This historic crossover suggests France's traditional advantage of higher birth rates compared to its European neighbours is now under serious threat.
A Sharp Decline in Fertility
France had long been a demographic outlier in Europe. As recently as 2023, it boasted the EU's second-highest fertility rate at 1.65 children per woman, just behind Bulgaria. However, new data for 2025 shows a dramatic reversal.
Insee reported this week that the fertility rate has plummeted to 1.56 children per woman, the lowest level recorded since the end of the First World War. Sylvie Le Minez of Insee highlighted the scale of the drop, noting it represents a 24% decline from the rate of 2.01 registered just fifteen years ago in 2010.
"Since 2010, births have been declining year after year in France," Le Minez stated, confirming a clear and sustained downward trend.
Financial Fears and Societal Worries
Insight into the potential causes comes from a major public consultation conducted by the National Assembly late last year. The survey of over 30,000 adults found that financial concerns are the primary deterrent to starting a family.
28% of respondents identified the cost of raising and caring for children as the main barrier to parenthood. Other significant factors included broader anxieties about the future of society (18%) and the challenge of balancing work, personal life, and family needs (15%).
This public sentiment aligns with the emerging demographic reality, painting a picture of a generation hesitant to have children due to economic pressures.
Joining a Wider European Trend
France is no longer an exception to the demographic challenges sweeping the continent. "This is not a first for European countries," explained Le Minez, pointing out that 20 of the EU's 27 member states saw more deaths than births in 2024. "But this time, this is also the case for France."
The data indicates France is now firmly facing the prospect of a shrinking workforce, a common EU issue where ageing populations increase the burden on pension systems and elderly care services. Life expectancy in France continues to rise, reaching 85.9 years for women and 80.3 for men last year. Meanwhile, the share of people aged 65 or older has climbed to 22%, nearly matching the proportion of those under 20.
Despite the natural population decline, France's overall population grew slightly to 69.1 million in 2025, sustained by net migration estimated at about 176,000. However, demographic projections warn of a stark future without immigration. Recent Eurostat forecasts suggest that, absent migration, France's population could fall to as low as 59 million by the year 2100.
This demographic shift occurs against a political backdrop of rising anti-immigration sentiment, led by parties such as the National Rally. Analysts suggest that policies restricting migration could, paradoxically, accelerate overall population decline in the long term.
