Ukraine's Resilience Defies Expectations as War Enters Fifth Year
Four years ago, the world anticipated Ukraine's swift defeat under Russian aggression, yet the nation has stood firm, transforming a predicted landgrab into a protracted geopolitical struggle. As the conflict marks its fifth anniversary on 24 February, with no resolution in sight, the dynamics of this war continue to surprise analysts and leaders alike.
Initially, experts forecast a rapid Russian victory, citing Russia's overwhelming advantages: a population over three times larger, a GDP approximately ten times greater, and a vastly superior military arsenal of tanks, artillery, missiles, and warplanes. Russian leadership, including Vladimir Putin, expected Ukrainian capitulation or even a welcoming of troops. However, US and British intelligence, while predicting the war early, also projected a quick Russian triumph that has failed to materialise.
Morale and Casualties: The Human Cost of War
Ukraine's strong morale has been a critical factor in defying early doomsday predictions. The Ukrainian army has endured between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, including 100,000 to 140,000 fatalities, yet retains a steadfast will to fight. In contrast, Russia has reportedly suffered twice as many casualties, with estimates of 1.2 million total, including 219,000 verified deaths and some projections reaching 325,000 fatalities. Geolocated data indicates that around 24,000 pieces of Russian equipment have been destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or seized, losses that have stunned observers, particularly Putin.
Ukrainian civilians have braved immense hardships, such as during the winter of 2022–23 when Russia targeted the electricity grid, depriving millions of light, heat, and water. This brutal winter has intensified, with thousands of drones and missiles striking cities and power stations. Ukraine lacks sufficient missile defences to protect these targets, yet a common refrain among visitors is: "We have no choice but to fight if we want to survive." This higher stake has bolstered morale, akin to lessons learned by the French and Americans in Vietnam.
Drone Warfare and Battlefield Adaptations
On the battlefield, Ukraine's drones have revolutionised combat, preventing Russian generals from employing their preferred manoeuvre warfare tactics. Instead of concentrating armoured brigades for breakthroughs, Russia has been forced into a war of attrition, where drone-dominated operations make traditional assaults suicidal. Ukrainian forces, leveraging ingenious tech-savvy civilians and makeshift facilities, hold a qualitative edge in drones, which account for 60-70% of casualties in this conflict.
Russian commanders have adapted by dispatching small infantry units to infiltrate lines and using unconventional supply methods like passenger vehicles, motorbikes, donkeys, and horses to limit losses. Ukraine has countered with relentless drone strikes and domestically produced missiles, such as the Long Neptune and Flamingo models, targeting distant Russian command posts, airfields, and ammunition depots. These deep strikes have disrupted logistics and hit over half of Russia's major refineries, causing gasoline shortages and price hikes.
Territorial Gains and Strategic Challenges
Russian forces have struggled to leverage their numerical advantage for rapid territorial gains. Since 2024, key offensives against areas like Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad have yielded maximum daily gains of only 70 metres, with monthly casualties averaging nearly 35,000 last year. After capturing Avdiivka in February 2024, Russia has not taken another large town until recently, gaining just 1.5% of Ukrainian territory. To annex the rest of Donbas, Russia must breach fortified defences and storm urban centres like Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostyantynivka, a prospect fraught with bloodshed.
Ukraine faces its own challenges, including troop shortages exacerbated by draft-dodging. While western media highlights this, Russia's larger population does not guarantee abundant manpower, as it increasingly recruits foreign fighters from Africa, Cuba, Central Asia, India, Nepal, and North Korea, offering lavish bonuses and salaries. Despite economic pressures, Moscow maintains ample firepower, though its army's performance has been shambolic, even with Donald Trump's pause on direct military aid to Kyiv.
Political Stalemate and Future Prospects
Russia has not lost the war, and its economy remains intact, but Putin's new proposal signals potential recalibration. He defines victory as conquering Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, yet Russia fully controls only Luhansk. Now, he offers a deal contingent on Ukraine ceding the rest of Donetsk. Despite Putin's boasts of advances, reports of liberating Kupiansk or conquering Zaporizhzhia may be exaggerated, as western accounts often presume the accuracy of Russian claims.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejects any political settlement that surrenders territory Russia has failed to capture, a stance supported by 75% of war-weary Ukrainians in polls. As the conflict drags on, the resilience of Ukraine continues to shape a complex geopolitical landscape, with no easy end in sight.
