UK families have been urged not to panic about their summer holiday plans, despite fears over jet fuel shortages and soaring prices linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Airlines have cut 13,000 flights globally in May, removing nearly two million seats, as the war between the US, Israel, and Iran disrupts supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Expert Reassurance on Flight Cuts
Aviation analyst John Strickland insisted that the 13,000 flights pulled in May amount to only about 1% to 2% of all scheduled flights. He warned against assuming similar or greater impacts in the coming months. “You can’t judge May against the peak summer,” Strickland told the Mirror. “Airlines want to fly their full programme—this is not a wholesale chopping of flights that would disrupt people’s summer holiday plans.”
Strickland noted that airlines are “relatively confident” they will have enough jet fuel on a rolling six-week basis, with additional supplies being sourced from the US and elsewhere to replace those lost from the Gulf. Some carriers have switched to smaller or more fuel-efficient aircraft to brace for possible disruption, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.
UK-Specific Cancellations
Cirium data shows that 120 scheduled flights from the UK to global destinations have been cancelled in May so far. For June, cancellations stand at 36 out of nearly 22,000 scheduled flights. The price of jet fuel has doubled since the US-Israel war with Iran erupted at the end of February, crippling shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Airlines Respond to Fuel Crisis
German airline Lufthansa has axed 20,000 flights and warned that higher jet fuel prices could cost it £1.5 billion this year. It joins around two dozen airlines that have scaled back operations. Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said at the start of April that his airline may be forced to cancel 10% of its flights this summer. He told ITV News: “We’re all facing an unknown scenario. And we are certainly looking at maybe having to cancel 5% to 10% of flights through May, June and July.”
British Airways owner IAG is due to issue updated results on Friday. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander expressed confidence that most people travelling this summer would have a similar experience to last year. She noted there is currently no disruption to the supply of jet fuel, but “this clearly is an evolving situation.”
Oil Price Fluctuations
Oil prices slumped to two-week lows on Wednesday amid reports that the US and Iran were nearing an initial peace deal. Brent crude fell 7% to $102 a barrel, down from a recent peak of more than $120 but still well above the $60 before the war started.
Consumer Advice
Rory Boland, editor of Which? Travel, said: “It is understandable that holidaymakers are feeling apprehensive about their summer travel plans due to the wave of cancellations. The percentage of flights cancelled from the UK remains small, when you consider that the worst airlines cancel over 2% of flights less than a day before departure, even in normal times. Our advice for this summer is to book a package holiday, as that is the best way to protect the full cost of your holiday should greater disruption occur.”
Mark Tanzer, chief executive of travel trade body ABTA, added: “We really don’t want people worrying about their holidays; planes are taking off daily and people are continuing to get away on their holidays. The Government and airlines are clear that there isn’t a problem with fuel supply. If you have a holiday booked in for the coming months – including the May half term – we expect it to go ahead as planned. Whilst there have been reports about cancellations globally, these amount to less than one percent of overall flights.”
