Economists are celebrating a "bright start to 2026" for Scottish retailers, as new data reveals a significant bounce-back in both sales and footfall during January. This positive trend follows a challenging period in late 2025, offering a glimmer of hope for the sector.
Sales Figures Show Encouraging Growth
According to the latest report from the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) and KPMG, total sales in Scotland increased by 3.3% compared to January 2025. When adjusted for inflation, this translates to a real-terms rise of 1.7%, marking the strongest performance since April of the previous year.
This growth represents a notable improvement over January 2025, which saw a modest year-on-year increase of just 1.5%. The breakdown of sales categories shows non-food items leading the charge with a 4.4% surge, a substantial jump from the 0.6% rise recorded during the same period last year. Meanwhile, food sales experienced a 2% increase, slightly down from the 2.5% growth observed in January 2025.
Footfall Surges Across Scotland
Footfall in Scottish shops saw an impressive 5.1% year-on-year rise in January, the highest increase of any region in the United Kingdom. This rebound is particularly striking given that December 2025 had witnessed a 1.5% decline in footfall, capping off what economists described as a "disappointing" year for retailers.
The SCR-Sensormatic Footfall Monitor indicates that this uplift was felt across various retail environments. Shopping centres experienced a 4.9% increase in visitor numbers, while retail parks saw a 5.3% rise. Notably, Edinburgh and Glasgow emerged as top performers among UK cities, with footfall growth of 5.5% and 4.8% respectively.
Industry Experts Weigh In
Ewan MacDonald-Russell, deputy head of the SRC, commented on the encouraging figures, stating, "January may have brought some dismal weather to Scotland but at least shopkeepers enjoyed a bright start to 2026, with sales increasing by 1.7% in real terms." He noted that while the comparison was aided by storm-disrupted figures from the previous year, categories such as furniture, toys, and beauty products performed well throughout the month.
However, MacDonald-Russell struck a note of caution, explaining, "The strong January sales are partly a result of shoppers deferring purchases until discounting brings goods down to a low enough price; with consumer confidence remaining uncertain. Retailers will hope this is the start of sustained growth, rather than a one-off."
Regarding footfall, he described the 5.1% increase as "the best performance since last April," driven by comparisons with 2025 when Storm Eowyn forced widespread closures. He emphasized, "Scotland's high streets have had a very difficult few years and sustained footfall will help to make the case for further investment."
Promotional Strategies Yield Results
Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail and leisure at KPMG, observed that January sales had "enticed" consumers to spend, with personal electronics and children's clothes and toys performing particularly strongly. She added, "Many of Scotland's retailers will be pleased that their promotional strategies worked in January, but they remain acutely aware of the challenge of consistently growing sales volumes when consumers continue to be cautious about, and savvy with, their spending."
Andy Sumpter, retail consultant for Sensormatic Solutions, attributed Scotland's footfall increase partly to last year's shopper activity being disrupted by Storm Eowyn. Nevertheless, he highlighted that it still represented the strongest performance in the UK. Sumpter remarked, "As retailers continue to focus on value, experience and convenience, Scotland's early year uplift provides a solid platform, and after a challenging spell of eight months of negative footfall, some may feel this is the month when footfall finally found firmer ground."
Looking Ahead to February
The retail sector now turns its attention to February, with hopes that brighter weather will encourage more customers back to town and city centres. Industry leaders are cautiously optimistic that this January rebound could signal the beginning of a more sustained recovery for Scottish retail, which has faced significant challenges in recent years.
