In a highly unusual move, electric vehicle giant Tesla has published analyst forecasts suggesting its sales for 2025 will be lower than expected and will fall significantly short of the ambitious targets set by its chief executive, Elon Musk.
Revised Forecasts Signal a Slowdown
The company added a new "consensus" section to its investor website this week, featuring estimates that predict 423,000 deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2025. This figure would represent a notable 16% decline compared to the final quarter of 2024.
For the full year, the projections indicate Tesla will deliver approximately 1.64 million cars in 2025, down from 1.79 million in 2024. While growth is forecast to resume afterwards, the pace is slower than previously hoped. Estimates suggest 1.75 million deliveries in 2026, reaching 3 million only by 2029.
A Stark Contrast to Musk's Vision
These new figures stand in stark contrast to the vision Musk outlined to shareholders. In November, he declared the company was aiming to produce 4 million cars annually by the end of 2027. The newly published consensus forecasts imply Tesla will hit just 3 million two years later than that target.
The forecasts are also lower than other market compilers. An average of investment bank estimates gathered by Bloomberg had suggested Tesla would deliver 440,907 vehicles in Q4 2025.
Political Headwinds and a Lofty Valuation
Tesla's sales challenges come amid a tough year, with analysts citing consumer distaste for Musk's embrace of rightwing politics as a contributing factor. In 2024, Musk was the largest donor to Donald Trump's election campaign and launched a government efficiency drive. However, the alliance soured, leading President Trump to scrap key $7,500 electric vehicle buyer subsidies and slash supportive regulations.
Despite the sales pressures, Tesla retains a colossal market valuation of $1.4 trillion (£1.04tn), worth more than the next 30 largest carmakers combined. This valuation is heavily predicated on investor belief in Tesla's future as a leader in self-driving technology and robotics, rather than its current car output, which is less than a fifth of Toyota's.
Musk's fortune, largely tied to his Tesla shares and stake in SpaceX, is estimated at $623bn, keeping him the world's richest person. In November, shareholders approved a monumental $1 trillion compensation plan for Musk, partly contingent on Tesla delivering 20 million cars, with 10 million having active "full self-driving" subscriptions.
The publication of these tempered forecasts places a glaring spotlight on the gap between Tesla's present market reality and the futuristic ambitions that underpin its stratospheric share price.
