A stark warning has been issued about the future of the UK workforce, with a new report suggesting that artificial intelligence and automation could lead to the loss of as many as three million jobs over the coming decade.
High-Risk Occupations and Accelerated Change
The research from the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) indicates that the labour market is transforming at a pace three times faster than earlier forecasts. This rapid shift places specific roles in immediate danger.
The report highlights administrative, secretarial, customer service, and machine operator positions as being among the most threatened. These are classified as "high-risk declining occupations" where human workers are most vulnerable to being replaced by AI systems and automated processes.
The Essential Skills for Future Employment
In response to this looming crisis, the NFER has identified a core set of "essential employment skills" that will become increasingly vital for workers to possess. These are skills that are already in demand but are expected to be critical across the entire economy by 2035.
The essential skills identified are:
- Collaboration and communication
- Creative thinking
- Information literacy
- Organising, planning and prioritising
- Problem solving and decision making
While the overall number of jobs in the labour market is projected to grow by 2035, this growth will be concentrated in professional sectors such as science, engineering, and legal roles that heavily utilise these essential skills.
A Call for Collective Action
Jude Hillary, one of the report's authors, described the situation as a "critical challenge" that requires a direct and unified response. He emphasised that government, employers, and the education sector must work together to address the impending skills shortage.
The report cautions that failure to act could result in a lose-lose scenario: a shortage of skilled workers at the top end of the market could stifle economic growth, while a surplus of displaced workers at the bottom end could lead to widespread unemployment.
To prevent this, the paper concludes that a concerted effort is needed to strengthen support in early years education, tackle school inequalities, and rebuild the adult skills system to offer retraining opportunities for those trapped in declining occupations.
This research presents a different perspective from other studies, such as one from Microsoft which highlighted sales and communication roles as most at risk. It also follows real-world actions from companies like Accenture, which laid off 11,000 employees while expanding AI training, and IBM, which has replaced hundreds of roles with AI systems while creating new positions in other areas.
