Ukrainian Businesses Battle Power Cuts and Uncertainty Amid Russian Attacks
While businesses in Ukraine had braced for electricity disruptions due to Russian missile and drone assaults on the nation's energy infrastructure, the brutal winter of 2026 has exceeded all expectations. In the historic Podil district of Kyiv, the pre-dawn darkness is pierced by the warm glow from Spelta bakery-bistro's window, where baker Oleksandr Kutsenko, 31, skillfully shapes dough. Seconds later, the lights flicker out, ovens shut down, and darkness envelops the room. Kutsenko steps into the freezing night to activate a large rectangular generator, restoring power—a routine repeated endlessly as businesses grapple with outages from Russia's bombing campaign.
"It's now more than impossible to imagine a Ukrainian business operating without a generator," said Olha Hrynchuk, 28, co-founder and head baker of Spelta. She opened the bakery ten months after Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, a winter that marked the first targeting of Ukraine's energy system. Hrynchuk notes they barely know "normal" working conditions but face unprecedented challenges now.
Mounting Costs and Operational Hurdles
Production at Spelta relies entirely on electricity, with the generator consuming about 700 hryvnias ($16) worth of fuel per hour. "We run on a generator for 10 to 12 hours a day. You have no fixed schedule—you have to adapt and refuel it at the same time," Hrynchuk explained. The cost of purchasing and operating generators is just one of many obstacles for Ukrainian businesses after nearly four years of war. Acute labor shortages from mobilization and war-related migration, security risks, declining purchasing power, and complicated logistics compound the pressure, according to officials.
Olha Nasonova, 52, head of the Restaurants of Ukraine analytical center, states the industry is enduring its most difficult period in two decades. While businesses prepared for electricity cuts, the harsh winter has been especially tough for small cafés and family-run establishments with limited financial resources.
Businesses on the Brink of Closure
The "Best Way to Cup" project, with two venues and its own coffee roasting and grinding, teeters on permanent closure. Co-founder Yana Bilym, 33, opened the cafe in May, but a Russian attack in August shattered all windows and glass doors, costing 150,000 hryvnias (about $3,400) in renovations—half financed by a recently repaid bank loan. Last month, after consecutive large-scale Russian attacks on the energy sector, her building lost water supply and sewer function, forcing a temporary shutdown. "We were forced to close. We believe it's temporary. Businesses in December and January, unfortunately, operate at a loss," Bilym said.
Now, she regularly checks coffee machines and specialty refrigerators, fearing they may not withstand the cold. Bilym hopes for a short-term closure, as her husband serves on the front line, and she wants a place for him to return to after the war.
Generators as a Costly Lifeline
Many businesses have become community lifelines amid plunging temperatures. Ukraine's government permits some firms to operate during curfew as "Points of Invincibility," offering free electricity for charging devices, tea, and warmth. Tetiana Abramova, 61, founder of the Rito Group clothing company, produces designer knitwear since 1991, participates in Ukraine Fashion Week, and exports to the United States. In 2022, she took a loan to buy a 35-kilowatt generator costing 500,000 hryvnias ($11,500) and a wood-fired boiler for heating.
"At work we have heat, we have water, we have light—and we have each other," she said. However, operating on generators is 15%–20% more expensive than regular electricity, raising production costs by about 15%. Customer numbers have dropped by 40% due to emigration, shifting focus to online sales. "Profitability has fallen by around 50%, partly due to power outages. This affects both the volume and efficiency of our work. We simply cannot operate as much as we used to," Abramova added.
Economic Forecasts and Survival Strategies
A macroeconomic forecast by the Kyiv School of Economics for early 2026 identifies strikes on the energy system as the most acute short-term risk to GDP. If businesses adapt, output losses could be limited to 1%–2% of GDP, but prolonged failures might cause losses of 2%–3%. Abramova, with over 30 years of experience, spent nearly 100,000 hryvnias ($2,300) over two months on generator servicing to maintain production but cannot pass all costs to retailers.
"For us now, the main goal is not to be the most efficient, but to survive," Abramova concluded, echoing the resilience of Ukrainian entrepreneurs facing relentless adversity.
