Valentine’s Day shoppers in the UK may find their favourite chocolate treats costing more this year, even as global cocoa prices have fallen sharply from record highs. A recent study found that boxed chocolate assortments have increased by 11.8 percent on average since last February, with some products nearly doubling in price.
The price hike comes despite cocoa – the main ingredient in chocolate – dropping nearly 30 percent over the past month alone. Experts attribute the lag to manufacturers hedging cocoa purchases months in advance, meaning much of the chocolate on shelves today was made with expensive cocoa bought at peak rates. Companies such as Mondelez, maker of Cadbury and Toblerone, are still paying above current spot-market prices.
Trade policy has also played a role. While tariffs on cocoa beans, paste and butter were lifted in mid-November, imported brands such as Cadbury, Valrhona, Nestlé, and Lindt still face an additional 15 percent cost due to Trump-era tariffs, according to the Progressive Policy Institute.
Consumers may not see immediate relief. Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put told investors that “2027 certainly will benefit from this” price drop, suggesting savings will take years to reach shoppers. Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner added that last year’s price increases did not fully cover cocoa inflation in 2026, but if prices continue to fall, further rises may not be needed.
Despite higher costs, Valentine’s Day spending is expected to rise by $1.4 billion, showing demand for chocolate remains strong even amid tariffs and supply disruptions.
