The Met Office has indicated that while much of the UK may experience a drier and more settled Christmas, there remains a chance of a white Christmas, particularly along the south coast. High pressure is building, bringing a strong easterly breeze that will make it feel colder, with temperatures on Christmas Day expected to reach a daytime high of 7°C and night-time lows of -3°C or -4°C.
According to Marco Petagna of the Met Office, the south coast of England, towards South Devon and Cornwall, has the greatest chance of seeing 'the odd wintry flurry'. Technically, a white Christmas requires only a single snowflake to fall anywhere in the UK. The Royal Meteorological Society notes that snow has fallen on Christmas Day 54 times in the past 66 years at least somewhere in the UK, and every year since 2020 has been deemed 'white', except 2024.
However, significant snowfall is unlikely this year. Petagna stated that the chance of noteworthy snowfall is only around 10%. A thick blanket of snow on Christmas Day has occurred only four times since 1960: in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010. In 2010, snow covered 83% of weather stations, the highest percentage ever recorded.
Historically, the Little Ice Age between the 16th and 19th centuries made harsh winters more common, influencing depictions of snowy Christmases in literature. More recent severe winters include 1946–47 and 1962-63, when much of England remained snow-covered from late December to early March 1963. The rarity of festive snow cover today is partly attributed to climate change, with Met Office data showing warmer Decembers in recent decades, reducing the overall chance of snowfall on Christmas Day.
Despite the low probability of a white Christmas this year, the Met Office notes that most UK snow days occur between January and March, so snowballs are not a thing of the past.
