As winter tightens its grip and Brits pull on their warmest knitwear, the nation's collective imagination turns to the prospect of a picturesque 'white Christmas'. This seasonal dream follows a recent bout of wintry weather that blanketed parts of the country.
Current UK Snow Forecast
Last week witnessed significant snowfall across the UK, with some areas seeing accumulations of up to 25cm. This prompted the Met Office to issue an amber weather warning last Thursday. However, the forecaster now indicates that a return of widespread snow is not imminent.
The Met Office told The Independent: "There’s no significant snow in the current forecast period, with a mild westerly regime in charge bringing a mixture of sunny spells and periods of rain through this week."
They added that while there is a "chance of a bit of sleet over the tops of mountains in Scotland later in the week", there is currently no signal for snow at lower levels anywhere in the UK.
Looking Ahead: The Long-Range Outlook
In its forecast covering Saturday to Monday, 8 December, the Met Office predicts "changeable and unsettled conditions" will dominate. Low-pressure systems are expected to bring showers and longer spells of rain across much of the country.
The forecaster stated: "Some heavy rain or showers are expected, most often in the West, although with a risk some of this could spread to other areas at times. Snow will probably be confined to high ground in the North."
Temperatures during this period are anticipated to be close to or slightly above average for the time of year.
The Quest for a White Christmas
So, what are the chances of waking up to a snow-covered landscape on 25 December? According to the Met Office, it is simply "too early to speculate". Forecasters typically only start to get a clear picture of the Christmas Day weather in the week leading up to the festive holiday.
The official definition of a 'white Christmas' in the UK is more achievable than many think. The Met Office confirms that for it to be declared official, a single snowflake has to be observed falling somewhere in the UK within the 24-hour period of Christmas Day.
Looking at the historical data, a technical 'white Christmas' is not a rare event. More than half of all Christmas Days since 1960 have met this criterion, with at least 5% of weather stations reporting snowfall.
The last technical white Christmas was in 2023, when 11% of stations recorded snow falling. However, for the dream of snow settling on the ground, the bar is much higher. The last widespread Christmas with lying snow was in 2010, a record year where 83% of stations reported snow on the ground. This has only happened on four occasions in recent decades: in 1981, 1995, 2009, and 2010.
