Tropical cyclone Fina has intensified to a category two storm and could make landfall on the Northern Territory coast on Friday, potentially equalling the record for the earliest cyclone to hit Australia since 1973, the Bureau of Meteorology has said.
As of Wednesday night, Fina was located about 370km north-east of Darwin and moving east, with an expected turn south on Thursday. The bureau's latest update indicates a potential impact on the NT coast on Friday or Saturday.
Senior meteorologist Jonathan How said the earliest cyclone to make landfall in Australia was Ines, which crossed the Kimberley on 21 November 1973. The earliest to cross the NT coast was Alessia on 27 November 2013. 'Based on Fina's track map it could also cross the coast on the 21st, 22nd November, so that could equal the record for earliest landfall,' he said.
Although the official cyclone season began on 1 November, the first landfall typically occurs in mid to late December. The bureau's track map indicates Darwin could be affected. The last significant cyclone to impact Darwin was Marcus in 2018, a category two system with gusts of 130km/h that caused power outages.
Professor Steve Turton, an adjunct professor at Central Queensland University, said climate change is intensifying tropical cyclones globally. While fewer cyclones are expected, a higher proportion are likely to be severe, with category four and five storms becoming more common. Sea surface temperatures in the Timor Sea are above average and well above the 26.5C threshold needed for cyclone formation.
Fina is a small cyclone, which Turton said could intensify rapidly but also weaken quickly. 'Because it's small, it's likely to spin up quicker. But it can also weaken quicker because of inertia. So these small cyclones can sometimes catch you unawares,' he warned.
