The UK is on alert for a potential return of extreme winter conditions, as the same rare weather phenomenon that triggered the infamous 'Beast from the East' in 2018 is developing once again. The Met Office has confirmed that a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event is likely to occur in the coming week, with a high probability of bringing a significant cold snap to the nation.
What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming?
This complex meteorological event involves a rapid temperature increase high in the atmosphere above the North Pole. This warming can disrupt and even reverse the stratospheric polar vortex winds, which typically trap cold air over the Arctic. When this vortex weakens or splits, it allows frigid air to descend towards Europe, often reaching the UK around 10 to 14 days later.
According to the Met Office, this specific SSW event increases the likelihood of colder weather across the UK by roughly 70 per cent. While not a certainty, meteorologists are closely monitoring the situation, which could lead to a colder-than-average start to the winter season.
An Early Taste of Winter
The warning comes as the UK has already experienced a sharp drop in temperatures this week. The Met Office announced that "winter has arrived early across the UK", with an Arctic air mass bringing a mix of ice, snow, and frosty nights.
This early chill culminated in the coldest night of the season so far on Thursday, when the mercury plunged to a biting -11.7°C in Loch Glascarnoch. Widespread frost and wind chill made it feel even colder for many, with "feels like" temperatures widely sitting at minus one or minus two degrees Celsius. The harsh conditions led to school closures and triggered yellow and amber weather warnings for ice and snow across parts of the country.
Looking Ahead: A Mix of Mild and Menacing
The immediate forecast offers a brief respite. Over the weekend, temperatures are expected to rise as milder, more unsettled weather driven by Atlantic systems moves in, bringing cloud, rain, and stronger winds.
However, the spectre of the SSW event means this milder period may be short-lived. The potential return of colder weather in the next two weeks draws direct comparisons to the Beast from the East in 2018. That event, also caused by an SSW, transported freezing air from Siberia, causing temperatures to plummet to lows of -14.7°C in Faversham, Kent, and dumping up to 50 cm of snow in some areas during Storm Emma.
The Met Office summarises the current situation as uncertain and complex, stating: "From the clash of Arctic and North African air masses to the impacts of heavy rain, flooding, and significant snow, the country is experiencing a wide range of conditions... The outlook remains uncertain, with the potential for further cold spells and unsettled weather as the season progresses."
