The Met Office has released its long-range forecast for the Christmas period, covering December 21 to January 4, which suggests that widespread snow is unlikely this year. The national weather agency predicts 'changeable conditions' dominated by low pressure systems, bringing rain and strong winds, with any snow likely confined to northern hills.
According to the Met Office, 'showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, for much of the UK and some hill snow in the north' are expected. Temperatures are forecast to be close to average or slightly above, reducing the chances of a white Christmas for most of the country.
The BBC's long-range forecast, covering December 22 to January 4, echoes this outlook, stating that the 'most probable' outcome is 'further changeable weather, with occasional rain or showers and periods of strong winds'. It adds that 'mostly mild conditions' are expected, with any snow 'confined mainly to northern uplands'.
However, the BBC notes that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may switch from positive to negative, which could bring a 'growing chance of colder weather'. Netweather's forecast for December 22 to 30 also suggests high pressure dominance, making a white Christmas 'relatively unlikely', but does not rule out a 'short-lived northerly or north-easterly blast with wintry showers'.
The last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010, when snow was on the ground at 83% of weather stations. Since then, there have been technical white Christmases in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, where a single snowflake was recorded at some stations, but widespread snow has been absent.
