Scientists have issued a stark warning about the ever-present danger lurking in the cosmos: the threat of a catastrophic asteroid impact. New calculations reveal the unsettling odds of such an event—and how humanity might fare if disaster strikes.
The Grim Statistics
According to the latest research, the probability of a city-destroying asteroid hitting Earth in the next century stands at approximately 1 in 10,000. While those odds may seem reassuringly low, experts caution that the consequences would be devastating if such an event occurred.
Not Just Hollywood Fiction
"This isn't science fiction," warns Dr. Sarah Morrison, a leading planetary defence researcher. "We're talking about real, documented near-misses—like the Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013 that injured over 1,000 people."
Are We Prepared?
NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office currently tracks about 90% of near-Earth objects larger than 1km—potential civilization-enders. However, smaller asteroids (140m-1km), capable of regional destruction, remain significantly under-detected.
- Detection gap: Only 40% of mid-sized asteroids are currently tracked
- Response time: Most warning systems provide mere days or weeks of notice
- Defence systems: Experimental missions like DART show promise but remain untested for real threats
The Worst-Case Scenario
A direct hit from a 1km asteroid could:
- Create a crater 15km wide
- Trigger global climate effects lasting years
- Potentially cause mass extinction-level events
While the chances remain slim, scientists emphasize that improved detection and mitigation strategies are crucial for planetary security.
