A renewed and frantic scramble for the Moon is underway, but a stark warning suggests humanity is in danger of making a profound error. Instead of forging a new, cooperative chapter in space, we risk simply exporting our oldest and most destructive terrestrial politics—rivalry, exclusion, and unsustainable exploitation—to our celestial neighbour.
The Artemis Accords: A Flawed Foundation for Lunar Order
The framework for this new era is largely being shaped by the Artemis Accords, a US-led set of principles. While they contain positive elements, such as a commitment to sharing scientific data, critics argue they are fundamentally inadequate. The core concern is that the accords enshrine the concept of "safety zones" around lunar operations. In practice, these could function as de facto territorial claims, privileging the first arrivals and potentially locking out later actors, including emerging space nations.
This approach dangerously echoes the colonial "first come, first served" mentality that has caused so much conflict on Earth. The parallel to the 1884-85 Berlin Conference, where European powers carved up Africa, is uncomfortably close. The fear is that the Moon, rather than becoming a shared province for all humankind as envisioned by the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, will become a new arena for geopolitical competition between the US, China, Russia, and other powers.
Corporate Interests and the Scramble for Lunar Resources
Complicating the picture further is the powerful role of private corporations. Companies are no longer just contractors; they are central players with their own ambitions for lunar mining, tourism, and infrastructure. The drive to extract resources like water ice for fuel or rare minerals is a primary motivator. This injects a potent profit motive into the celestial sphere, raising the spectre of environmental degradation and a resource free-for-all on the Moon.
The current regulatory landscape is ill-equipped to manage this. The existing space treaties are vague on commercial exploitation, creating a legal grey area. Without robust, inclusive, and forward-thinking international agreements, the lunar surface could be scarred by the same short-term thinking that has driven climate change and ecological collapse on Earth. The principle of acting "for the benefit of all nations" risks being sidelined by commercial and national interests.
A Path Forward: Urgent Need for Inclusive Governance
There is an alternative path, but it requires urgent and deliberate action. The world needs a truly inclusive and enforceable international agreement for lunar activity that goes far beyond the Artemis Accords. This new framework must involve all space-faring nations and stakeholders, not just the current front-runners. Key priorities must include:
- Clear environmental protections for the lunar environment.
- Equitable mechanisms for sharing the benefits of lunar resources.
- Transparent conflict-resolution processes to prevent disputes.
- A firm commitment that lunar exploration serves peaceful, scientific, and universally beneficial ends.
The window to establish these rules is narrow. With NASA's Artemis programme aiming to return astronauts to the Moon and China pursuing its own lunar base ambitions, the facts on the ground—or rather, on the regolith—are being established rapidly. The decisions made in the next few years will set a precedent for all future space exploration, including missions to Mars.
This moment presents a profound test. It is a chance to learn from our planetary history and choose cooperation over conflict, stewardship over exploitation. The alternative is to look up at the Moon in the coming decades and see not a symbol of human unity, but a familiar reflection of our most divisive and unsustainable earthly politics. The new space race must not be a replay of our oldest mistakes.
