As the football world turns its attention to the draw for the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup this Friday, teams are bracing for the possibility of landing in a brutally difficult group. The tournament's new 48-team format has created a complex seeding system, opening the door for some formidable early-stage clashes. For the home nations and other key competitors, specific nightmare scenarios are already coming into focus.
England's Potential Pitfalls
Gareth Southgate's England, seeded in Pot 1, will be hoping to avoid a particularly tricky combination of opponents. The worst-case scenario based on FIFA rankings would see them drawn against Croatia from Pot 2, Panama from Pot 3, and Jordan from Pot 4. Croatia, ranked 10th globally and a recent finalist and semi-finalist, represent the highest-ranked possible Pot 2 foe. Drawing them would also rule out a group-stage meeting with Erling Haaland's Norway or a resurgent Italy, should the Azzurri navigate the playoffs.
Perhaps more concerning for England would be a draw pitting them against Morocco, Norway, and Jordan. This combination would bring the threat of Haaland's goalscoring prowess while also eliminating the chance of facing other dangerous Pot 3 sides like Egypt, led by Mohamed Salah. Ecuador also lurk in Pot 2 as a formidable opponent, having lost just twice in South American qualifying and boasting a stellar defensive record.
Scotland, USA & Australia's Tough Paths
For Scotland, positioned in Pot 3, the rankings suggest a nightmare group would involve facing world number one Spain from Pot 1 and 11th-ranked Morocco from Pot 2. An equally daunting alternative would be Argentina paired with Croatia. As hosts, the United States' place in Pot 1 shields them from the world's top nine teams. However, their trickiest draw could feature Morocco from Pot 2 and Norway from Pot 3, a pairing that would test their defensive mettle significantly.
Australia, sitting in Pot 2, will be desperate to avoid a combination of Argentina from Pot 1 and Norway from Pot 3. Such a draw would, however, prevent them from meeting a European team from Pot 4. The Socceroos must also be wary of Pot 4 opponents like Ghana or Cape Verde, who recently beat Ghana at the Africa Cup of Nations.
The Ultimate 'Group of Death'
Looking at the draw holistically, a theoretically possible 'group of death' could be devastating. A group containing Argentina (2nd), Morocco (11th), Italy (12th, if they qualify), and Norway (29th) would be a monumental challenge for all involved. The European playoffs in March will finalise the most feared Pot 4 entrants, with Italy remaining a formidable prospect despite their qualifying struggles. Norway, with Haaland, are the standout concern in Pot 3, while Morocco's 2022 heroics make them a dangerous Pot 2 team.
It is worth noting, however, that the expanded format allows the best eight third-place teams to progress, somewhat diluting the traditional peril of a 'group of death'.
Geopolitics on the Pitch
Beyond the sporting challenges, the draw could reignite significant geopolitical tensions. All eyes are on a potential fixture between the USA and Iran, which would create a major political spectacle. Relations remain strained, and a match—likely in Los Angeles, home to a large Iranian diaspora—would be fraught with symbolism. There is also the possibility of Curaçao, a constituent country of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, being drawn against the Dutch national team, adding a unique colonial dynamic to the contest.
The full seeding pots for the draw are as follows:
Pot 1: Canada, Mexico, USA, Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany.
Pot 2: Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, Iran, South Korea, Ecuador, Austria, Australia.
Pot 3: Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Côte d'Ivoire, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa.
Pot 4: Jordan, Cape Verde, Ghana, Curaçao, Haiti, New Zealand, four European playoff teams, two intercontinental playoff teams.
The stage is now set for a dramatic draw that will shape the narrative for the next two years of international football.
